Future mischief: Russia’s disinformation campaign will continue after elections

Whelan noted that stopping a disinformation campaign, especially a sophisticated, state-sponsored campaign such as Russia launches, is not easy. The response itself must be a coordinated effort to put together a series of complex responses in real time across many government agencies. The response effort is only made more complicated – and slow – because media and social media companies must be involved, and these companies are typically exceedingly reluctant to interfere with any kind of messaging owing to First Amendment considerations.

“The best thing the government can do now is help the private sector and the public prepare,” said Whelan. With open communications lines, “they can share information and limit the scope and scale of an electronic attack.”

The latest e-mail dump – a continuation of the close cooperation between Russian government agencies and WikiLeaks —has led U.S. intelligence officials to worry that Russia will escalate its disinformation campaign after Election Day. A senior U.S. intelligence official told NBC News that Putin is not interested only in discrediting the legitimacy of Tuesday’s elections, but is eager to undermine the effectiveness of the next president, regardless of who he or she is.

“Don’t think that the Russian activity was solely about the election, or about Trump,” the officials said. “It wasn’t. It was about their agenda, what they are trying to accomplish” in expanding Russia’s power and influence around the world.

Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Russia expert at the Pentagon and State Department, told NBC News that the broad Russian effort shows that Putin “is working on strengthening his negotiating position with the next president. The more he can show he can make life uncomfortable for America and Americans, and undermine confidence in the election and our Democratic institutions, the stronger he thinks his negotiating position is.”

Several current and former U.S. intelligence officials said Putin, a former KGB officer, has ordered the hacking campaign to gather as much information as possible about both candidates and their inner circles, and use this information – or the threat of using it — to embarrass or compromise them when the need arises.

Experts note that so far, the-mails given to WikiLeaks by the Russian government hackers have mostly not been about Hillary Clinton, but were rather e-mails showing arguments and disagreements among Clinton aides, and about former President Bill Clinton and the Clinton Foundation.

NBC News reported on 8 October that U.S. officials believe the Russian government hackers targeted both parties – but have not given to WikiLeaks any e-mails or documents from the Republican Party or the Trump campaign.

If the Russian government hackers did manage to infiltrate the computer systems of the GOP and the Trump campaign and steal e-mails and documents, it makes sense for them not to have released any of the stolen material. The immediate goal of the Russian hacking campaign has been to weaken Clinton and strengthen Trump. Putin sees a Trump presidency as serving Russia’s interests: It would weaken the United States, roil the U.S. alliances, and allow more room for Russia to flex its muscles in trouble spots.

If Trump wins on 8 November, however, the Russian reticence to use stolen documents about him and his campaign – if they have any in their possession — would likely change, and Russia may use the material its hackers had stolen to gain leverage over an incoming Republican administration.

“They are obviously still collecting,” the senior U.S. intelligence official told NBC News. “What are they going to do with that?”