Climate action window could close as early as 2023
“In the absence of a government mandate, and if there is encouragement for coal to come back, then there’s no way we can meet the target,” Supekar said.
To arrive at their findings, Supekar and Skerlos calculated the future greenhouse gas contributions of the auto and power industries based on two approaches going forward—”business as usual” and “climate action.” Their calculations relied on the lowest-cost technologies in each sector.
In the “business as usual” scenario, the auto industry followed its current rate of vehicle diversification—utilizing efficient internal combustion, electric and hybrid models, and the power sector utilized mostly natural gas and renewable plants. In the “climate action” scenario, those sectors relied on a greater percentage of cleaner automotive and power technologies to meet the IPCC climate goals.
“At some point, likely by 2023, you actually can’t build the newer, cleaner power plants fast enough or sell enough fuel-efficient cars fast enough to be able to achieve the 70 percent target,” Skerlos said.
Added Supekar, “The year-on-year emission reduction rate in such dramatic technology turnovers will exceed 5 percent after about 2020, which makes the 70-percent target infeasible for all practical purposes.”
The analysis found no evidence to justify delaying climate action in the name of reducing technological costs, even under the most optimistic trajectories for improvement in fuels efficiencies, demand, and technology costs in the U.S. auto and electric sectors. In fact, the study found that waiting another four years to initiate measures on track with the 70 percent target would take the total cost for both sectors from about $38 billion a year to $65 billion a year.
“You could take this same model or a different model and arrive at different cost numbers using a your own set of assumptions for “business as usual” or interests rates, for instance,” Supekar said. “But the point is, regardless of whether the cost of climate action today is $38 billion or $100 billion, this cost will rise sharply in three to four years from now.”
The IPCC has determined that in order to keep Earth’s average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times by the end of the century, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced between 40 percent and 70 percent by 2050. The United States is the largest cumulative emitter of greenhouse gases, and the electric and auto industries account for nearly half of the country’s annual output. Fossil fuel combustion accounts for 95 percent of those industries’ emissions.
— Read more in Sarang D. Supekar and Steven J. Skerlos, “Analysis of Costs and Time Frame for Reducing CO2 Emissions by 70% in the U.S. Auto and Energy Sectors by 2050,” Environmental Science & Technology 51, no. 19 (14 September 2017): 10932–942 (DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01295)
