EarthquakesThe HayWired scenario: a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area

Published 23 April 2018

Last week the USGS, along with approximately sixty partners, released a new fact sheet that summarizes a report from a larger study of what could happen during a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area along the Hayward Fault – arguably one of the most urbanized and interconnected areas in the nation. Earthquakes pose a threat to the safety of more than 143 million people living in the United States, and estimated long-term annualized earthquake losses in the United States are more than $6.1 billion per year.

Last week the USGS, along with approximately sixty partners, released a new fact sheet that summarizes a report from a larger study of what could happen during a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area along the Hayward Fault – arguably one of the most urbanized and interconnected areas in the nation. This study is called “The HayWired Earthquake Scenario.”

“The USGS and its partners have worked together to anticipate the impacts of a hypothetical M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault, before it happens, so that people can use the latest science in their efforts to become even better prepared,” said Ken Hudnut, USGS Science Advisor for Risk Reduction and one of the lead authors of the HayWired Earthquake Scenario report.

The newly released USGS Fact Sheet, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario – We Can Outsmart Disaster, provides a concise overview of what will be a multi-volume report. The Fact Sheet distills key points of the report and provides the first glimpse of a truly groundbreaking study into earthquake hazard impacts, mitigation efforts, and resiliency actions for communities in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.

What is the HayWired Scenario?
USGS says that the HayWired Scenario is a scientifically realistic, highly detailed depiction of what may happen during and after a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault with an epicenter in Oakland, CA. But it is not a prediction, and a real earthquake on the Hayward Fault could occur at any time and with a different pattern of shaking causing damage to be concentrated in different spots. Understanding the risk and getting ready for a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault like the one depicted in this scenario can help other at-risk communities prepare for similar events that are possible in their area.