Nuclear weapons detectionDetecting the threat of nuclear weapons
Will the recent U.S. withdrawal from a 2015 accord that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program make it easier for Iran to pursue the bomb in secret? Not likely, according to Scott Kemp, an associate professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT. “The most powerful insights into Iran’s nuclear program come from traditional intelligence, not from inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency,” says Kemp. But covert nuclear-weapon programs, whether in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere in the world, are a major unsolved problem, according to Kemp.
Will the recent U.S. withdrawal from a 2015 accord that put restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program make it easier for Iran to pursue the bomb in secret? Not likely, according to Scott Kemp, an associate professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT.
“The most powerful insights into Iran’s nuclear program come from traditional intelligence, not from inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency,” says Kemp, who this week published a commentary article in Nature on the interplay of policy and science in North Korea.
But covert nuclear-weapon programs, whether in Iran, North Korea, or elsewhere in the world, are a major unsolved problem, according to Kemp. He recently explained the technical challenges involved in the hunt for clandestine sites. And he floated a possible solution.
What inspectors look for
Inspectors want to search for the secret production of plutonium or highly enriched uranium, says Kemp. Manufacturing an actual explosive device can be accomplished quickly and discreetly once either of these ingredients is secured in enough quantity. “The assembly work can be done in an office building, underground facility, or even in a big kitchen. It’s nearly impossible to detect once the program reaches this point.”
The good news, relatively speaking, is that manufacturing these explosive materials can leave telltale clues.
“All international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation focus on preventing the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium,” says Kemp. “The hope is to stop the material from ever being produced in the first place, or at least in sufficient quantities to make a nuclear bomb.”
What are the telltale clues of covert production?
“The production of either plutonium or highly enriched uranium is a major operation that requires people and time,” says Kemp. The involvement of many people means traditional intelligence has some chance of finding the program. But traditional intelligence can be unreliable, especially in closed societies like North Korea. Technical mechanisms would provide a useful overlay.
