PerspectiveRisks Grow as Countries Share Electricity Across Borders
Increasing interconnection of electricity systems both within and between countries has much promise to help support clean energy power systems of the future. If the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing in one place, an electricity grid with high voltage transmission lines can move electricity to where it is needed. This shared infrastructure and increased trade can possibly serve as a basis for peace between neighbors in conflict, but it may also serve as a tool of coercion if the electricity can be cut off by one party.
Increasing interconnection of electricity systems both within and between countries has much promise to help support clean energy power systems of the future. If the sun isn’t shining or wind isn’t blowing in one place, an electricity grid with high voltage transmission lines can move electricity to where it is needed. Joshua Busby, Sarang Shidore, and Morgan Bazilian write in Defense One that this shared infrastructure and increased trade can possibly serve as a basis for peace between neighbors in conflict, but it may also serve as a tool of coercion if the electricity can be cut off by one party.
Cross-border trade in electricity is currently dominated by Europe – 90 percent of the $5.6bn electricity trade market happens there, but in the future increased trade in electricity, particularly in Asia, is set to grow dramatically. The boldest proposal comes from the Chinese organization GEIDCO which has, with the backing of the State Grid Corporation of China (which reportedly has over 1 million employees), promoted regional and even global grid integration.
On the one hand, such grid integration could foster greater interdependence in conflict zones and facilitate more shared interests. But there is another concern, what we call a strategic denial of service. This would be a form of what Farrell and Newman refer to as “weaponized interdependence,” a situation where one country uses a shared relationship asymmetrically to extract political concessions from another party.
Busby, Shidore, and Bazillian conclude:
In the absence of institutions to guard against politically motivated service denials, countries will remain disconnected or even seek to decouple their systems from neighbors deemed too risky. In much of the electricity space where the potential is largely untapped, it would mean foregoing many of the benefits associated with integrated grids. Poorer, weaker countries needing power might have few options and accept the Faustian bargain that puts them at the mercies of more powerful neighbors. At a moment when our collective emissions of greenhouse gases already have tied us together in mutual vulnerability to climate change, it would be a shame if joint efforts to address the problem got caught up in the return of great power politics.