Preparing for Chemical Attacks

In 2012, CSAC started developing a desktop tool that could rapidly calculate the expected consequences from a chemical release and the impact of the response. The input data, which characterizes the hazard, targets and the public health response, is included in the models as default values or distributions providing a fast and flexible platform for users. Typically, 10,000 calculations are performed in two to three minutes to provide the user with a range of possible outcomes, including the best case, worst case and most likely outcome. 

How Does CCAT Work?
CCAT is a planning tool that consists of six different consequence models, which cover different types of targets. The tool calculates the number of people who are expected to receive a life-threatening, severe or moderate injury based on the concentration and toxicity of the chemical, how long they were exposed, as well as emergency responses including sheltering in place, evacuations or food recalls.  Additionally, a medical mitigation model characterizes the current ability to respond and treat people considering available resources, number of people impacted and, and how quickly medical intervention is needed. The analysis helps users evaluate the potential severity of an event and the impact of various response and mitigation strategies, such as more, better or faster countermeasures or the impact of detection or evacuation, and even the impact of others affected on the ability to effectively respond to a large- scale chemical event.  

As it only takes milliseconds to run a single simulation, analysts can rapidly identify sensitive parameters and choke points, and can explore the boundaries of what is possible in a response.

Transition and Future Plans
CSAC has transitioned the software to several U.S. partners and is currently working to transition the capability to a U.K. partner. Current and future U.S. partners include the Johns Hopkins Advanced Physics Lab (which has been using CCAT to support work for DHS), Department of Defense, Combatting Terrorism Technical Support Office, and more. The tool has already been used by the Transportation Security Administration to provide mission support on aviation security, by the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program to assess theft and diversion scenarios, by the food industry to identify and protect vulnerable contamination points and by international partners to analyze the impact of stockpile management strategies and to provide pre-event analysis for special events.

CCAT is one of four characterization tools included in the CAPT Web Suite, which cover biological, radiological and nuclear hazards, in addition to chemical threats. A similar platform to analyze explosive threats is in development and could be ready in late 2020. 

“Tools like CCAT provide a systematic and analytical way of prioritizing  what we should protect against, how we can best protect against it, what hazards need to be better characterized through experimental work, and where the smartest investments are,” said Gooding. “This is a way of making sure federal dollars are spent the wisest way possible to understand and defend against the most consequential threats we are facing. Ultimately, that is why we are doing it – to save lives.”