IranWest Has No Response to Iran’s Increasing Dominance of the Middle East

Published 7 November 2019

A new, detailed study says that over the past forty years Iran has built a network of nonstate alliances which has allowed it to turn the balance of “effective” power in the region “in its favor.” In a report released today (7 November), the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says the United States and its regional allies retain superiority in conventional forces over Iran, but that Iran has been able to counter both the U.S. military superiority and the ever-more-severe economic sanctions imposed on Iran by building “networks of influence” with proxies which allow Tehran to have a major influence over the affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says that over the past forty years Iran has built a network of nonstate alliances which has allowed it to turn the balance of “effective” power in the region “in its favor.”

In a report — titled Iran’s Networks of Influence In The Middle East — released today (7 November), the London-based think tank says the United States and its regional allies retain superiority in conventional forces over Iran, but that Iran has been able to counter both the U.S. military superiority and the ever-more-severe economic sanctions imposed on Iran by building “networks of influence” with proxies which allow Tehran to have a major influence over the affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Iran has equipped and trained military forces of different sizes and competence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, and has supported anti-regime militias in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Egypt.

Here is the IISS report’s Executive Summary:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has tipped the balance of effective force in the Middle East in its favor by countering superior conventional forces with influence operations and use of third-party forces.

To do this, it has developed a sovereign capability to conduct warfare in battlefields across the Middle East through third parties. In recent and ongoing conflicts, this effective force has given Iran a strategic advantage over adversaries reliant on conventional capabilities or attempting to nurture their own networks of partners.

This sovereign capability lies with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. The Quds Force, which has matured under its current commander Qasem Soleimani, is now a powerful regional actor whose doctrine and strategy are highly adapted to the realities of contemporary conflict. Iran has designed, resourced and deployed this capability as its principal means of countering regional adversaries and international pressure.

As Iran pursues its regional agenda, the strategic value of this capability is greater than that of Tehran’s conventional forces, ballistic-missile capability or nuclear  program.  Its deployment has encountered no effective international response but has consistently delivered Iran advantage without the cost or risk of direct confrontation with adversaries. It has become Iran’s weapon of choice.