Perspective: Conspiracy theoryEarthquake Conspiracy Theorists Are Wreaking Havoc During Emergencies
Scientists have been trying hard to be able to predict earthquakes, because accurately predicting an earthquake would save lives, decrease property damage, and allow people to have some measure of control over one of nature’s most frightening and unpredictable events. Scientific predictions of the location and time of specific tremors are modest in scope – which have created an opening for earthquake conspiracy theorists who “claim that they have discovered the key to accurate quake prediction, as well as the hidden secrets behind why these tremors happen,” Anna Merlan writes.
Scientists have been trying hard to be able to predict earthquakes, because accurately predicting an earthquake would save lives, decrease property damage, and allow people to have some measure of control over one of nature’s most frightening and unpredictable events. Anna Merlan writes in Vice that for now, though, it’s still out of reach.
She writes:
The U.S. Geological Survey, or USGS, recently released an early warning system in California called ShakeAlert. It can provide people with a very, very brief warning once an earthquake begins, relying on sensors that monitor seismic waves, explained Sara McBride, a research social scientist at USGS. “We can’t provide two hours of warning,” she said, “but we can provide several seconds.” The agency can also produce probabilistic models about aftershocks following an earthquake, based on what they know from quakes past.
That’s about the limit, and those modest milestones have taken years of focused scientific work.
Merlan writes that, meanwhile, there are people who will claim that they have discovered the key to accurate quake prediction, as well as the hidden secrets behind why these tremors happen. “Earthquake conspiracy theorists aren’t a huge group, but they do exist and have an immense amount of sway over their dedicated fans. What’s more, with social media, their power is growing,” Merlan writes, adding:
These are not people, of course, who would describe themselves as conspiracy theorists. They would say they are rogue scientists, unfairly reviled by their more mainstream colleagues for having mastered prediction, the ultimate goal of seismology. They say they’re only working to share that information with the public, and frequently accuse established scientific agencies like the USGS of hiding earthquakes or changing the magnitude after the fact to downplay their severity.
Merlan notes that the effects of earthquake conspiracy theories are not limited to during or immediately after a quake. Rather, their effects, as is the case with earthquakes themselves, can be felt for far, far longer – especially, in eroding public trust in scientific approaches to earthquake predictions and preparations.
