Islamic State Poised for Comeback, U.S. Defense Officials Report
“ISIS appears to have sufficient weapons, explosives, operatives and funding to carry out its present level of operations, but assessed that it likely faces significant constraints in expanding beyond that for the next 12 to 18 months,” said the inspector general report released Tuesday, citing intelligence from U.S. Central Command.
There are also signs that the collapse of its self-declared caliphate and ongoing pressure from the U.S.-led coalition has taken a toll on IS’s ability to project strength.
In contrast to the assessment by defense intelligence officials, officials with Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) argue it has been unable to take advantage of Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria, protests in Iraq or even hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
“ISIS really hasn’t been able to exploit any gaps or seams,” Deputy Commander Maj. Gen. Alex Grynkewich recently told Pentagon reporters.
“ISIS is a little bit more on the lack of capability and capacity side than strategically patient,” he added.
Another analysis by U.S. Central Command suggested IS propaganda, while serving to rally the most dedicated of the group’s followers, has also been less effective than in the past.
Concerns about an Evolving IS
Some analysts are wary of writing off IS so easily, even if just in the near term.
“There aren’t attacks in some areas because ISIS doesn’t need to attack,” according to Jennifer Cafarella, research director at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“The phrase that has been used is ISIS is owning the night in many villages in the Ninewa Plains and in the disputed internal boundaries (with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq),” she said. “That’s a bad sign.”
Other analysts worry the U.S.-led coalition may be underestimating IS’s ability to innovate.
“I don’t think IS would necessarily emerge in the same way they did before,” said Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Their outbreak from 2012 to 2015 was different than their outbreak from 2003 to 2006. So, I would expect whatever happens going forward will look different again because the context and situation is different.”
And, there is plenty of intelligence to suggest IS remains a threat.
U.S. counterterrorism officials warn the terror group still commands at least 14,000 fighters across Iraq and Syria. State Department officials say the number could be closer to 18,000, up from an estimated more than 10,000 this past May, just months after the caliphate collapsed.
A recent intelligence report from the United Nations likewise warns anywhere from half to two-thirds of the more than 40,000 foreign fighters who flocked to Syria and Iraq to fight for IS “are still alive,” many of them unaccounted for.
The Financing of Terror
IS financing is also a concern, according to the U.S. inspector general report, as many of the terror group’s revenue streams remain intact.
“ISIS continues to generate revenue by extorting oil smuggling networks in northeastern Syria,” the report said, citing intelligence from the U.S. Treasury Department.
While oil revenue has shrunk considerably since the collapse of the IS caliphate, U.S. officials say IS fighters continue to rake in profits from kidnapping and extortion plots, from looting, and by using front companies to move money around.
U.S. and U.N. officials estimate, even now, IS may have close to $300 million in reserves.
U.S. officials also warn getting visibility into what IS is doing has gotten more difficult now that the U.S. has pulled forces from the area.
“The withdrawal of U.S. forces from areas of northeastern Syria diminished (the Treasury Department’s) insight into ISIS’s fundraising and cash storage activities, as well as its ability to assess trends,” the inspector general report found.
Jeff Seldin is VOA news reporter. This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA)
