Will Coronavirus Change Europe Permanently?

In England, the long-term effects of the medieval Black Death were devastating and far-reaching, according to historian Tom James, with “agriculture, religion, economics and even social class affected. Medieval Britain was irreversibly changed,” he wrote in a 2017 commentary for the BBC. Historians say it reordered England’s social order by hastening the end of feudalism.

The Spanish flu epidemic, which killed tens of millions of people worldwide, including 500,000 Americans, affected the course of history — it may have contributed to the Western allies winning World War I, say some historians. German General Erich Ludendorff thought so, arguing years later that influenza had robbed him of victory.  

And it even affected the peace, argued British journalist Laura Spinney in her 2017 book “Pale Rider,” which studied the Spanish flu. Among other things, Spinney said the flu may have contributed to the massive stroke U.S. President Woodrow Wilson suffered as he was recovering from the viral infection.  

“That stroke left an indelible mark both on Wilson (leaving him paralyzed on the left side of his body) and on global politics,” Spinney wrote. An ailing U.S. president was unable to persuade Congress to join the League of Nations.

Historians and risk analysts caution that as no one knows how COVID-19 will play out — what the death toll or economic costs will be, or how well or badly individual governments may perform — they are sure it will leave an indelible mark.

Much of the impact of past contagions was due to demographic crises left in their wake — high death tolls caused social dislocation and labor shortages. Even worst-case scenarios suggest the coronavirus won’t cause a demographic crisis. But shutting down economies will have long-term ramifications, possibly a recession or depression, and will likely spawn political change.

“While the health challenges and economic consequences are potentially devastating, the political consequences are harder to foresee but might be the most long-lasting,” said John Scott, head of sustainability risk at the Zurich Insurance Group.  

“Voters may not be kind to politicians who fail in their basic duty to protect citizens,” he said in a note for the World Economic Forum.

For all of Europe’s political leaders and ruling parties, regardless of ideology, the pandemic and its economic fallout risks driving them from office if they’re seen to have bungled.

Many have already been forced into policy reversals. Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, who outlined Monday the biggest set of changes in the daily lives of Britons since World War II, has made large U-turns in the space of days.

This week, he made his biggest reversal following new modeling by disease experts at London’s Imperial College, which suggested that without a national shutdown the death toll would exceed 250,000.

In Europe, member states have been breaking with Brussels over border controls. European Union officials insisted that national governments should not close borders or stop the free movement of people within the so-called Schengen zone. 

Last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that “each member state needs to live up to its full responsibility, and the EU as a whole needs to be determined, coordinated and united.”

Her advice has been ignored, with countries across the continent closing their borders.  

Some believe that the Schengen system of borderless travel will never be fully restored after the virus has been suppressed or run its course.  

Luca Zaia, governor of the Veneto region, one of Italy’s worst-hit areas, told reporters that Europe’s borderless zone was “disappearing as we speak.”  

“Schengen no longer exists,” he said. “It will be remembered only in the history books.”  

He and others believe as the crisis deepens, member states will take other unilateral actions, setting the stage for a patchwork of national policies that will erode European unity and set back the cause of European federalism.

The Economist magazine also suggested last week that the coronavirus will play more to the agenda of populists, who decry globalization and have lamented the weakening of nation states.

But other observers say COVID-19 could have the reverse effect by trigging an uptick in multilateralism and greater cross-border solidarity, much as the Spanish flu prompted the ushering in of public health care systems and the first international agencies to combat disease.

How the fight goes against the virus is one thing. Another is how Europe copes with the likely economic slump that follows, and a debt crisis that might be triggered, analysts say.  

That, too, will reshape national and continental politics, much as the 2008 financial crash shattered the grip of mainstream parties on European politics.

Jamie Dettmer is VOA reporter covering Europe, Mideast. This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA)