ArgumentBeware a China-Russia Nexus in Central Europe Amid US-EU Neglect
Until recently, Russian and Chinese influence across Europe generally reflected their distinct strategic aims. But their interests increasingly converge. Common to both Vladimir Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s strategies is the decoupling of the United States and Europe. Jakub Janda and Richard Kraemer write that leaders on both sides of the Atlantic will have to act in concert – and fast – to forestall an even greater corrosion of the democratic norms that have kept the peace – or helped restore it, in the case of the wars in the former Yugoslavia – for three-quarters of a century.
Until recently, Russian and Chinese influence across Europe generally reflected their distinct strategic aims. But their interests increasingly converge. Common to both Vladimir Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s strategies is the decoupling of the United States and Europe. Jakub Janda and Richard Kraemer write in Just Security that leaders on both sides of the Atlantic will have to act in concert – and fast – to forestall an even greater corrosion of the democratic norms that have kept the peace – or helped restore it, in the case of the wars in the former Yugoslavia – for three-quarters of a century.
Janda and Kraemer write that Russia and China have made particular inroads in Central and Southeastern Europe in recent years.
Putin’s government identifies dissatisfied segments of the public and the political class and maliciously exploits vulnerabilities via disinformation and related propaganda to exacerbate divisions, hinder democratic institutions, and generally neutralize the European space, particularly in the Balkans and the “Visegrad Four” countries of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Xi’s multiple and insidious charm offensives, on the other hand, have been comparatively apolitical, being less concerned about democratic or authoritarian governance and more aimed at bolstering the Chinese Communist Party’s global legitimacy, especially among political, business, and intellectual elites.
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To the delight of both Russia and China, the gradual weakening of U.S.-European ties over the last two decades is accelerating due to mutual neglect, miscommunication, and diminished policy coordination in a post-Cold War world. It hasn’t helped that the Trump administration’s approach to resolving inequities in NATO member defense-spending commitments or aspects of transatlantic trade relations has been nearly all vinegar and little wine. The result is rapidly diminishing support for partnership with America in key ally states such as Germany. According to a Pew Research poll in April, almost as many Germans prioritized their country’s relationship with China – 36 percent – as with the United States (37 percent). That was a significant change from a year earlier, when 50 percent of Germans preferred a closer partnership with the United States, compared with 24 percent favoring better ties with China.
Washington’s unhelpful bellicosity understandably alienates many Europeans, making it all the more difficult for their elected leaders to work jointly even on common interests. This reciprocal disengagement between Washington and key European capitals leaves room, in turn, for adversarial interventions by Russia and China.
