Truth decayDetecting Conspiracy Theories on Social Media

How can we better detect the spread of online conspiracy theories at scale? How do online conspiracies function linguistically and rhetorically?

Conspiracy theories circulated online via social media contribute to a shift in public discourse away from facts and analysis and can contribute to direct public harm. Social media platforms face a difficult technical and policy challenge in trying to mitigate harm from online conspiracy theory language. As part of Google’s Jigsaw unit’s effort to confront emerging threats and incubate new technology to help create a safer world, RAND researchers conducted a modeling effort to improve machine-learning (ML) technology for detecting conspiracy theory language. They developed a hybrid model using linguistic and rhetorical theory to boost performance. They also aimed to synthesize existing research on conspiracy theories using new insight from this improved modeling effort. This report describes the results of that effort and offers recommendations to counter the effects of conspiracy theories that are spread online.

Here is the report’s summary:

Conspiracy theories are an important part of what the RAND Corporation refers to as Truth Decay—a shift in public discourse away from facts and analysis caused by four interrelated drivers:

1. an increasing disagreement about facts and analytical interpretations of facts and data

2. a blurring of the line between opinion and fact

3. an increasing relative volume, and resulting influence, of opinion and personal experience over fact

4. a declining trust in formerly respected sources of factual information.

Conspiracy theories reflect both a move away from factual truth and declining trust in factual sources, replacing trustworthy information with untrustworthy information. Social media has made information, including conspiracy theories, easy to share across the global communications network.