AfghanistanCollapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from Experts

Published 18 August 2021

The sudden end to America’s longest war came Sunday as the Taliban rolled into the capital of Afghanistan and the national government collapsed. Thousands of U.S. citizens and Afghans who worked for Americans are waiting to be evacuated. U.S. troops are at the Kabul airport to keep flights going. RAND experts offer explanations.

The sudden end to America’s longest war came Sunday as the Taliban rolled into the capital of Afghanistan and the national government collapsed. Thousands of U.S. citizens and Afghans who worked for Americans are waiting to be evacuated. U.S. troops are at the Kabul airport to keep flights going. Even as the situation remains in flux, a handful of RAND researchers have shared some of their initial thoughts.

Dianne Saenz, Pete Wilmoth, and Leah Polk spoke with these RAND experts:

·  Jason Campbell is a policy researcher who studies international security, counterinsurgency, intelligence, and measuring progress in post-conflict reconstruction. He served as country director for Afghanistan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy from June 2016 through September 2018.

·  Shelly Culbertson is a senior policy researcher who focuses on forced displacement, post-conflict stabilization, and disaster recovery. She has led multiple studies about refugees, and is associate director of RAND’s Disaster Research and Analysis Program.

·  Linda Robinson is a senior policy researcher whose expertise includes national security strategy, international affairs, special operations forces, and irregular warfare and stabilization. She directs the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy and is the author of the 2013 book about special ops in Afghanistan, One Hundred Victories: Special Ops and the Future of American Warfare.

·  Andrew Radin is a political scientist who studies NATO, state-building and security-sector reform, and peace operations. He served as a country director for Afghanistan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy from December 2018 through December 2020.

·  Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst whose research focuses on national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues.

Question: What can the United States and the international community do at this point to protect Afghan refugees?
Shelly Culbertson
: The best way to help displaced people is to prevent them from being displaced in the first place, but it’s too late for that. Afghanistan already has about a fifth of its population displaced from years of war. Many of them have been living as refugees in poor conditions for years. There is a very real risk of growing numbers of new refugees from Afghanistan—both people who have worked for the United States at some point, who are seeking Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs), and other civilians who are fleeing out of fear.