ARGUMENT: Deterring BioattacksA Deterrence by Denial Strategy for Addressing Biological Weapons

Published 24 September 2021

The U.S. political failures have loomed large in coverage of the COVID-19 crisis. Christine Parthemore and Andy Weber write that, what is more, a number of analysts have warned that, after watching these failures play out, hostile powers might take a new interest in using biological weapons to target the United States. “This risk is real. Fortunately, the pandemic has also brought into use cutting-edge technologies that can help counter it,” they write.

The U.S. political failures have loomed large in coverage of the COVID-19 crisis. Christine Parthemore and Andy Weber write in War on the Rocks that, what is more, a number of analysts have warned that, after watching these failures play out, hostile powers might take a new interest in using biological weapons to target the United States. “This risk is real. Fortunately, the pandemic has also brought into use cutting-edge technologies that can help counter it,” they write, adding:

Defending against biological attacks with a strategy of deterrence by denial is now more possible than ever before. Such a strategy would involve developing robust capabilities to prevent biological weapons from causing mass damage, essentially deterring their use by preventing them from having the effect that attackers intend.

The note that, ultimately, a strategy of deterrence by denial will only be credible in the right political environment — one in which Americans and their leaders are united in confronting biological threats. “But the sooner Washington begins working toward this goal at the technical level, the sooner it can become a reality. As the government prepares its new national biodefense strategy, the Pentagon should embrace its role in rendering mass-effect biological attacks so ineffective as to be futile.”

They conclude:

National security leaders should make it clear that the tools now exist to stop biological threats more effectively than ever, and that America intends to use them. They should also invest in the research and programs that will make this claim credible.

Articulating a strategy of deterrence by denial would help combine all the assets on display during the pandemic into a coherent, easy to understand vision. It would also demonstrate how specific activities — such as preventing access to bioweapons-potential materials, increasing rapid medical countermeasure development capabilities, strengthening biosafety and biosecurity practices, and planning and exercising combined military and civilian responses to biological attacks with allies and partners — can operate together to keep the country safe. Moreover, articulating this strategy might also inspire America’s allies to consider whether their governments are well positioned to adopt it.

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, America had many of the capabilities required for effective responses. Due to significant political challenges, among other factors, Washington stumbled in its first attempt to use them. Now the government can use the lessons of COVID-19 to do better. The United States needs to leverage the technological edge embedded in its bioeconomy, take full advantage of the Pentagon’s strong assets for addressing biological threats, and form a coherent strategy centered on blunting mass-casualty biological attacks.

Deterrence by denial is achievable, but not simple. Alternatively, if the nation chooses to perpetuate the problems that led to the death of more than 650,000 Americans in less than two years, we can expect adversaries to continue contemplating how to exploit them.