How Climate Change Contributes to Global Violence

 Of key importance are the often interconnected ways in which climate change will negatively impact infrastructure and transportation, energy demand and production, domestic and international trade, agriculture, fishing, tourism, water availability, health care and many other economic sectors of society. These kinds of consequences are not limited to the United States but are truly global in their impact. There is no nation or region of the world not affected by climate change, although as these reports make clear, the negative impacts tend to be concentrated among nations and populations that are the poorest, most vulnerable and least equipped to handle such challenges. 

As someone who studies collective violence, genocide and mass atrocity, I have long been concerned with the ways in which climate change can amplify intolerance and persecution and facilitate violent conflict, including war and genocide. Collective violence doesn’t just erupt spontaneously but is brought about by specific triggers and situations, and many of these relate to the consequences of climate change. Many past and contemporary conflicts and wars, for example, have revolved around protecting or acquiring scarce or diminishing resources, especially fresh potable water. Given that around one quarter of the world’s population is currently dealing with extreme water stress and critical shortages, a situation expected to worsen dramatically in the coming years, we can easily understand how access to fresh water can become a flash point for conflict. In fact, this precise issue has already strained relations and heightened tensions between many nations, including India and Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, and Yemen and Saudi Arabia, to name just a few examples.  

Population displacement is another potential source of conflict since all estimates point to a significant increase in the number of people dislocated in the coming years and decades. Sometimes it will happen because of catastrophic weather events such as flooding and hurricanes, while other times it will occur because of slower climate change processes, such as drought, that will progressively drive people from their homes, communities and livelihoods. It appears that the human climate niche is shrinking dramatically, and a lot more people will be on the move in the coming years and decades as they search for security, safety and opportunity.  

All these challenges will strain the ability of governments to meet the needs of their citizens, heighten tensions among and between communities, populations and nations, and encourage othering, scapegoating and persecution of those defined as different, dangerous or simply superfluous. In short, as nations struggle to cope with catastrophic weather events, diminishing resources, environmental degradation, population dislocation and various other climate-induced problems, violence becomes not only possible, but also more likely. It is a situation tailor-made for the violent persecution of vulnerable population groups such as refugees and racial, religious and ethnic minorities.  

These are dire scenarios and truly force us to confront the central crisis of our era. To prevent the worst outcomes of climate change, it is clear that we need to collectively implement far more aggressive steps than we have yet undertaken. This recognition seems to be gaining momentum as individuals, communities and political and social leaders around the world appear increasingly willing to confront hard choices. There is also hope to be found in the resilience displayed by many communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. While social media and news reports have often focused on those individuals, leaders and communities that have fallen prey to misinformation, hostility and resistance to public health measures, we should also remember that the vast majority of people have not reacted in such negative and hostile ways. Across the globe, we have seen individuals and communities work together to care for and support each other in often dire circumstances. Countless people from all walks of life have sacrificed and risked their own personal safety and comfort to provide aid and assistance for the sick and to preserve the basic functioning of society. Persecution, violence and anarchy are not inevitable consequences of climate change, but instead reflect the choices we make individually and collectively. How we choose to respond at this inflection point in the history of humanity will be critical for determining the kind of environment, planet and civilization that we leave for our children and their descendants.  

Alex Alvarez is Professor, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Northern Arizona University. His latest book isUnstable Ground: Climate Change, Conflict, and Genocide. This articleis published courtesy pf the NAU Review.