Hypersonic WeaponsCan U.S. Missile-Defense Systems Handle China’s New Missiles?
A hypersonic glide vehicle, possibly with a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS), would enable the Chinese to circumvent existing and likely planned U.S. missile-defense and early warning systems. They would go through the back door, rather than try to bash down the defended and watched front door.
A pair of reports in the Financial Times have set the defense community abuzz with the suggestion that China has tested a new hypersonic glide vehicle, possibly with a fractional orbital bombardment system, or FOBS. Two possible tests—one potentially as early as 27 July and a second on 13 August—involved a Chinese Long March 2C orbital launch vehicle blasting off and flying a south polar trajectory into low-earth orbit. The rocket released a hypersonic glide vehicle that circled the globe in low polar orbit before de-orbiting and landing several kilometers from its target. China claims that it was a test of a spaceplane under its Tengyun program, but the nominated date of 16 July doesn’t match up with the launch activity observed later that month and in August.
FOBS is not a new idea. The Soviet Union explored the possibility of firing ballistic missiles over Antarctica to attack the United States from the south, rather than from the north over the Arctic, during the Cold War. An early system was deployed but soon withdrawn from service when Soviet efforts turned to modernizing their intercontinental ballistic missile force and introducing independently manoeuvring multiple warheads, or MIRVs, to complicate U.S. defensive measures. The U.S. considered the idea, but never deployed a FOBS capability, and has always favored traditional ICBMs that fly over the Arctic.
But FOBS might be back. The Russians have suggested a FOBS capability for the SS-28 Sarmat heavy ICBM that will replace the SS-18 Satan, and now it looks like China may be pursuing a FOBS too, though one that replaces traditional MIRVs with hypersonic glide vehicles. It’s the FOBS–HGV combination that’s new and has led to a lot of guessing by China watchers and arms-control advocates about what the test entailed and what China’s intent is in pursuing such a capability.
A FOBS capability, especially if combined with a highly manoeuverable hypersonic glide vehicle, would enable the Chinese to circumvent existing and likely planned U.S. missile-defense and early warning systems. They would go through the back door, rather than try to bash down the defended and watched front door. Understanding the architecture of U.S. early warning and defense systems helps illuminate why China would test a FOBS–HGV capability now.
