RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISISProspect of War in Ukraine Raises Questions About Europe’s Natural Gas Supply
The possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is what an armed conflict in Eastern Europe raises the question of the repercussion to the energy supply of the countries of the European Union, which have become increasingly reliant on Russian natural gas for electricity generation, industrial applications, and commercial and residential use.
One of the many unsettling questions raised by the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is what an armed conflict in Eastern Europe would do to the energy supply of the countries of the European Union, which have become increasingly reliant on Russian natural gas for electricity generation, industrial applications, and commercial and residential use.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom imported more than 80% of the natural gas they consumed in 2020, up from 65% a decade before.
Of the gas it imports, the EU receives the majority of it, about 74%, via pipelines. The remainder arrives in liquid form, typically on specialized cargo ships. Russia is the largest supplier of the fuel to the countries of the EU, with about 35% of total imports, all of it arriving via multiple pipelines, many of which cross through Ukraine on their way to countries in central Europe.
To be sure, a major disruption in natural gas transmission to Europe would also negatively affect Russia, which relies on energy sales for much of its income, Charlie Riedl, executive director at the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, told VOA. He said an outcome that leaves Russia without that income stream is likely not a viable situation for Russian President Vladimir Putin over the long term.
“It has long-term ramifications for Russia’s gas business — something that Putin is, I’m sure, acutely aware of,” he said. “Losing market share in Europe is problematic, given that the vast majority of Russian-produced gas winds up in Europe. So, there are challenges associated with that, if you’re thinking about this from a Russian standpoint, in addition to the sanctions that they will be facing on a broader scale.”
Different Degrees of Disruption
Should Russia send troops into Ukraine, disruptions caused by fighting could prompt some shortages, particularly in Slovakia, Austria and Italy, which receive most of their natural gas through pipelines via Ukrainian territory.
However, Europe would likely face other disruptions, not directly caused by fighting.
The United States and its NATO allies have promised to apply a set of punishing international sanctions on Russia if it sends troops into Ukraine. If those sanctions include a refusal to buy Russia’s gas, or if Moscow elects to turn off the flow in retaliation, the shortage of gas flowing into Europe would further worsen.
