ARGUMENT: POST-INVASION UKRAINERussia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine: U.S. Officials

Published 18 February 2022

Russia has prepared a detailed list of prominent Ukrainian opponents of Russia ad anti-corruption activists, and of Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile in Ukraine, who would be hunted down and killed by Russian special forces should Russia move forward with plans to invade Ukraine.

The United States has obtained intelligence that Russia may target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile should it move forward with plans to invade Ukraine.

my Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer, and Jack Detsch write in Foreign Policy that four people familiar with U.S. intelligence said that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine.

They add:

The Biden administration has also been startled by how formalized the lists are, which appear to target anyone who could challenge the Russian agenda. Five Eyes intelligence partners have also tracked Russian intelligence agencies, such as the FSB and GRU, building up target and kill lists. One congressional aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the moves were typical of Russian doctrine, using armed forces to seize military objectives, while special operators shape the conflict and intelligence operators come into the country to get rid of opposition elements.

….

report published earlier this week by the British defense think tank the Royal United Services Institute, based on interviews with several senior Ukrainian intelligence officials, alleged that the Russian security services had extensive penetration of Ukrainian local government structures and had begun mapping out networks of individuals who could be relied upon to run local governments in the event of a Russian invasion. 

According to the report, the 9th Directorate of Russia’s FSB security service began wargaming scenarios this past December with the leadership of Russia’s Airborne Forces. 

“Together they mapped which locals would be supportive and began working on lists of targets who would not. The intent was to establish the command-and-control links between intelligence assets and military units to secure critical infrastructure, government buildings, and to locate and eliminate Ukrainian leaders who would rally resistance,” the report said. 

The Foreign Policy writers note that senior U.S. diplomats and former intelligence officials say the hope is that by calling out Putin’s moves before he makes them and taking away any element of surprise, they can help deter an invasion.