How the Russian Military Remade Itself into a Modern, Efficient and Deadly Fighting Machine

In the current war, the kadyrovtsy will likely be used in urban operations and during systematic “security sweeps” inside Russia-occupied territories, which will no doubt result in numerous detentions and persecutions.

Russian Military Objectives So Far
The first phase of the offensive has focused on several military objectives, including

·  multiple waves of coordinated cruise missile attacks and artillery strikes against Ukraine’s military infrastructure (including airfields, radar installations, military command and intelligence headquarters, ammunition depots, oil refineries and army and naval facilities)

·  large-scale cyber attacks and electronic warfare

·  simultaneous airborne assaults and raids by special forces deep inside Ukraine, including the capture of the strategically important Hostomel airfield on the outskirts of Kyiv

·  a massive frontal assault in Donetsk and Luhansk aimed at embroiling Ukrainian forces into a prolonged defensive fight

·  a partial naval blockade of Ukrainian ports

·  the capture of several Ukrainian towns.

Although the Russians have faced stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, they have crucial advantages on the battlefield, including air superiority and control over some strategic zones. The simultaneous military advance on several fronts has also forced the Ukrainian military to respond in a more sporadic way and focus on defensive operations, namely in major urban centers.

Lessons from the Georgian Conflict
Such a multi-pronged attack using sophisticated combat systems was not possible in Russia’s five-day war with Georgia in 2008. Although Russia won the war quickly, it sustained significant losses. The conflict revealed glaring deficiencies in its armed forces, which were largely a holdover from the days of the Soviet Union.

For example, the Russian military barely used high-precision munitions or cruise missiles in that conflict. Instead, it was forced to deploy tactical and strategic aircraft in response to a strong Georgian air defence, which shot down a number of Russian aircraft.

In Ukraine, Russia is now relying on long-range, high-precision strikes – from air, sea and land – which have minimized risks to Russian aircraft.

In Georgia, Russia’s ageing tanks and other armored vehicles entered major urban areas and were forced to engage in protracted street battles. There were other logistical failures on the way to the conflict, with many vehicles breaking down or having road accidents.

In Ukraine, the Russian forces have initially tended to encircle major cities in an attempt to pressure the Ukrainian military to withdraw. The Russians are also intensifying their missile strikes and aerial attacks against urban targets.

And back in 2008, the Russians could do little to prevent the US from docking a warship in a Black Sea port as a show of strength near the theatre of war.

Now, Russian naval battle groups in the eastern Mediterranean are effectively deterring US and NATO fleets from pressuring the Russians on the ground in Ukraine.

What Could Happen Next?
The Russians and Ukrainians have agreed to talks on the Belarus-Ukraine border, but Russia says it will not stop its offensive.

Indeed, its announcement overnight that it was putting its nuclear deterrence forces on high alert signaled a readiness to ramp up its military offensive. The Kremlin is trying to deter the West from supporting Ukraine and applying severe economic pressure on Russia.

As part of accelerating its advance, the Russian military is also likely to resort other deadly assets, among them the TOS-1, a heavy flamethrower capable of firing thermobaric weapons. Such weapons, which were used by Russia in the Chechnya and Syria conflicts, use oxygen to generate a high-temperature explosion.

So, what could happen next from a military perspective? Russia’s aims will likely be to:

·  solidify its strategic control over territory in eastern Ukraine

·  encircle and defeat Ukrainian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk and overtake Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is under direct assault

·  isolate Ukraine from the rest of the world with a full naval blockade and the destruction of remaining airfields, which would slow down the accelerating foreign military assistance

·  and the main political objective, capture the capital, Kyiv, and install a pro-Russian regime.

The growing resistance of the Ukrainian military will no doubt force the Russians to intensify the tempo of their operations. We should also expect the ferocity of fighting to shift more into urban areas.

Elevating Russia’s strategic nuclear deterrent forces to the “special regime of combat duty” (a near-war condition) increases the risk of the war going beyond Ukraine’s borders, as well.

Alexey D. Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies, Curtin University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.