OUR PICKS: UKRAINE WARSanctions & Cryptocurrency | Risks of War in a Nuclear State | No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine, and more

Could Russia Get Around Sanctions with Cryptocurrency?  (Agence France-Presse / VOA News)
Cryptocurrency purchases in rubles are at a record high following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising questions about whether the likes of bitcoin can help Moscow get around sanctions.

Ukraine: The Risks of War in a Nuclear State  (Stuart Braun, DW)
The fear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could escalate to a nuclear war is real. But what happens if any of the country’s 15 nuclear power reactors get caught in the crossfire?

Why Peace in Ukraine Isn’t Likely Soon  (Christina Pazzanese and Liz Mineo, Harvard Gazette)
Harvard experts, scholars look at tangled history leading to conflict, hurdles to resolution.

Foreign Fighters in Ukraine? Evaluating the Benefits and Risks  (Daniel Byman, Lawfare)
The war today differs from jihadists conflicts and even the more limited recent civil conflict in Ukraine, but these and other experiences offer some lessons to consider about any future role for foreign fighters.

The Legal Obligation to Recognize Russian Deserters as Refugees  (Tom Dannenbaum, Just Security)
The European Union (EU) and its member states are reportedly considering offering asylum to Russian deserters. They and other states around the world have a legal obligation to do precisely that. Soldiers who flee punishment for refusing to fight in aggressive wars are properly understood as refugees under international law.

Putin Loses No Matter How This Plays Out, but We Might Too  (Jean-Baptist Jeangène Vilmer, War on the Rocks)
No matter how the war in Ukraine plays out, Putin loses. Even if Russian forces prevail on the ground and in the air, he loses. Even if he takes Kyiv tomorrow, he loses. Russia lacks the forces (and perhaps the will) to occupy Ukraine in the face of a restive civil society and guerrilla movement. And that would be on top of having already reinforced NATO, awakened Europe, isolated his country, ruined its economy, and alienated many Russians, including his “friends.” What happens next depends less on the military outcome of the conflict than on other factors he has already put in motion and that will further affect him.
It might seem presumptuous in the first week of a war to predict its outcome and second-order effects for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, but it seems Putin’s defeat is the likely product of five factors: the heavy price of a prospective military victory, the quagmire of an occupation, the strengthening of NATO and European defense, the international isolation of Russia, and the internal contestation which may lead to Putin’s fall. So Putin lost, but it does not mean we win. He knows that he cornered himself and this is precisely where it gets dangerous because he may think that the only way out for him is to escalate.

Russian Aggression Hastens Lawmakers’ Push to Enforce Sanctions in Crypto Industry  (Mariam Baksh, Nextgov)
The Justice Department also launched a ‘KleptoCapture’ task force to target the use of cryptocurrencies for sanctions evasion.

How Russia Sanctions Could Affect U.S. Economic Power  (Alireza Ahmadi, National Interest)
A new era of great power competition means that such a concentration of economic power in Western hands will no longer be tolerable for many.

A No-Fly Zone Over Ukraine Risks Igniting War Between NATO and Russia  (Ido Vock, New Statesman)
hose arguing for one need to explain how an escalation between nuclear powers would be avoided when aircraft start getting shot down.