WAR IN UKRAINEThe Strategic Choices Ukrainian, Russian Military Leaders Are Facing in the Donbas
With the war in Ukraine in its seventh week and Moscow pressing its campaign more forcefully in the east and south, fighting could become more brutal as the guerrilla-style tactics Ukrainians used around Kyiv to repel Russian forces shift to a more conventional battle of military might. Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London and author of The Future Of War, explains what this new stage of the conflict will look like.
With the war in Ukraine in its seventh week and Moscow pressing its campaign more forcefully in the east and south, fighting could become more brutal as the guerrilla-style tactics Ukrainians used around Kyiv to repel Russian forces shift to a more conventional battle of military might.
The Kremlin’s calculus also appears to be shifting.
Having fully withdrawn from the Kyiv region, Moscow is hoping to salvage its campaign by focusing on the Donbas, where war has raged since 2014 following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea and moves by Russia-backed separatists to seize territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on April 9 that a “difficult battle” lies ahead in the east and that Russia was massing troops and equipment for a major offensive.
The prospect of the bloodiest fight so far in the war also comes as the unprecedented sanctions placed on Russia by Western nations are failing to halt its military campaign.
With no indications that financial leverage is slowing the Russian war effort, Western governments are now increasing the supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine as it prepares for fighting that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said would more closely resemble battles from World War II, with thousands of tanks, aircraft, and armored vehicles involved.
RFE/RL’s Reid Standish spoke with Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London and author of The Future Of War, to get a better understanding of what this new stage of the conflict will look like.
Reid Standish: We are now seeing the Russians concentrating their campaign in the east and south. Should we expect to see a Russian military encountering similar supply and logistical issues as it did elsewhere in Ukraine? How might this phase of the war be different than the first?
Lawrence Freedman: Well, [the Russians] shouldn’t have the same sort of issues as they did in the rest of Ukraine because they are able to supply from Russia through the [separatist] enclaves or through Crimea. The distances are obviously not so great for them. However, so long as they’re on the offensive, they will face issues.
