CHINA WATCHRussia’s War in Ukraine: China’s Lessons
China is learning from Russia’s troubled war in Ukraine to improve its battle strategies and prepare for economic sanctions if Beijing ever attacks self-ruled Taiwan. Experts say that China may also be looking harder at peaceful solutions for Taiwan, they say.
China is learning from Russia’s troubled war in Ukraine to improve its battle strategies and prepare for economic sanctions if Beijing ever attacks self-ruled Taiwan, experts believe.
The country may also be looking harder at peaceful solutions for Taiwan, they say.
Russia is facing stronger-than-expected military resistance in Ukraine since its invasion on February 24, especially in the streets, along with stiff Western-led economic sanctions and stepped-up military aid from abroad.
Chinese officials are eyeing ways to take over Taiwan relatively fast by targeting the island’s communications hubs and major political institutions, some analysts believe. They say China would need more logistical support for any amphibious attack on the island that’s 160 kilometers away, and a media message to back up any invasion.
“China at least would learn that they’ll need to better prepare for sufficient logistics support for the amphibious operation, as well as a great number of munitions, such as artillery and missiles, if China decides to attack Taiwan,” said Chen Yi-fan, assistant professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
“Most importantly, China needs to command the moral high ground through cognitive warfare and media discourse,” he said.
Russian Setbacks
Ukraine said on April 3 its forces had retaken the whole zone around the capital, Kyiv, for the first time since Russia invaded. Russia had announced around the same time that its military would focus on two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine rather than the capital or the country’s interior.
The effect of Russian firepower is “overestimated,” while advanced weapons systems have “limited supplies of ammunition,” a retired Russian colonel warned in February before the war, as quoted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. The colonel further predicted bloodshed from urban combat.
In a March 23 forecast, the Institute of International Finance said Russia’s economy will shrink by about 15% this year because of the war.
China vs. Taiwan
China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the Chinese civil war of the 1940s, when Chiang Kai-chek’s Nationalists lost to Mao Zedong’s Communists and established a presence on the nearby island. The two sides have been self-ruled since then.
Taiwan-China talks broke down in 2016 after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen took office. Her political party opposes unification with China. People’s Liberation Army air force planes fly almost daily through a corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Beijing has never ruled out use of force, if needed, to unify the two sides.
