CHINA WATCHThe Meaning of Biden’s Big Shift on Taiwan

By David Sacks

Published 25 May 2022

The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) does not obligate the United States to directly intervene on Taiwan’s behalf. Instead, for four decades Washington has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” leaving unanswered the question of whether it would defend Taiwan. In moving away from strategic ambiguity, Biden made a long overdue adjustment to U.S. policy.

On Monday, standing next to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, President Biden dispensed with forty years of strategic ambiguity by making clear he would use military force to come to Taiwan’s defense. This was not the first time President Biden has seemed to endorse what Richard Haass and I have termed “strategic clarity.” In all three instances, the Biden administration walked back the president’s comments, undercutting deterrence and confusing U.S. allies and partners. But regardless of administration officials claiming that there is no change to U.S. policy, President Biden’s comments are significant and represent a long overdue shift.

First, it is important to note that while President Biden asserted the United States has a commitment to come to Taiwan’s defense, it does not. Under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), the United States pledged to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and maintain the capacity to come to Taiwan’s defense, while the president must inform Congress of any threat to Taiwan. The TRA does not, however, obligate the United States to directly intervene on Taiwan’s behalf. Instead, for four decades Washington has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” leaving unanswered the question of whether it would defend Taiwan. The logic underpinning strategic ambiguity is that China could not be sure the United States would not come to Taiwan’s defense, while Taiwan could not be sure the United States would defend it, thus simultaneously deterring China from attacking and Taiwan from provoking China.

Nonetheless, President Biden’s decision to state that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense was the correct one, as failing to do so would severely undermine America’s position in Asia. If China were to subjugate Taiwan, it would be the biggest step to date in Beijing’s quest to establish hegemony in the world’s most consequential region. As President Biden noted, a Chinese use of force against Taiwan would “dislocate the entire region.” If China were to place its military on the island, it could more easily threaten Japan and the Philippines, two U.S. treaty allies. Economically, China would gain control of an economy that is the global epicenter of semiconductor manufacturing and the United States’ eighth-largest trading partner. (Cont.)