Western Leaders Should Take Escalation over Ukraine Seriously

difficult to comprehend.

….

Most wars will either be far less lethal or far more lethal than the median. The bottom 50 percent of wars have an average of about 2,900 battle deaths, while the top 50 percent have an average of 653,000, and it is effectively a coin-flip which half any given war will end up in. In Ukraine, after three months and with no end in sight, Western analysts estimate at least 20,000 fatalities, putting this war well into the top half of conflicts.

Some who argue that the U.S. and European support for Ukraine must be more robust, and that the goal of the war should be a defeat of Russia, say that the shadow of nuclear weapons inhibits escalation, so the truly catastrophic outcomes are less likely than they used to be.

Lopate and Braumoeller contend, however, that

we would first note that Ukraine is not a nuclear-armed state, so nuclear-deterrence dynamics do not apply, and some have even suggested that Russia might use low-yield nuclear weapons to achieve some semblance of victory in Ukraine. But even if the United States were to get more directly involved, the logic of nuclear weapons is not as clear cut and de-escalatory as many believe it to be. If deterrence is highly effective, it creates what is known as the stability-instability paradox: Because all states are deterred from using nuclear weapons, warfare becomes more pervasive at lower levels of escalation. Russia and NATO could fight for years in Ukraine, safe in the knowledge that no one is likely to use nuclear weapons. 

The authors conclude:

In The Prince, Machiavelli wrote that despite mercy and generosity being virtues worthy of emulation, a political leader must be aware that doing the virtuous thing can lead to worse outcomes, both for yourself and for those you intended to help. Many across the United States and Europe, the authors included, have a deep desire to help Ukraine, a nation that is suffering a monstrous injustice. Doing all they can to end the conflict is the virtuous choice, and we are certainly not arguing against a robust Western response. We are, however, concerned with calls to seek total victory without a realistic analysis of the costs and risks involved. A call to do more without thinking about the risks leaves the door open for “virtuous escalation.” We want to underscore the unpredictability and danger of this path. If this conflict does escalate, if Russia decides reducing cities to rubble is its only path to victory, or if NATO countries decide to intervene directly, the potential for catastrophe is far higher than most people realize, and vastly too high for comfort.