WAR IN UKRAINENo Game Changer: Russian Mobilization May Slow, Not Stop, Ukrainian Offensive
The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.
The Kremlin’s aim to mobilize up to 300,000 men to fight in Ukraine faces significant obstacles and — even if achieved — may not prevent Russia from losing more ground or losing the war, analysts said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the “partial mobilization,” due to start immediately, in an address broadcast to the nation on September 21, nearly eight months after he launched a large-scale invasion that he apparently believed would bring Kyiv to its knees within a few days.
Instead, the call-up effort comes as Ukrainian forces push ahead with a counteroffensive in the east that has laid bare Russia’s lack of manpower and other military shortcomings along a front that extends hundreds of kilometers.
Mobilization “may extend the Russian ability to sort of sustain this war but does not change the overall trajectory and outcome,” Michael Kofman, a military analyst and head the Russia Studies Program at the U.S.-based think tank CNA, said in an online discussion on September 21.
Rob Lee, a military expert and senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, said that the mobilization might solve the manpower problem “for a few months” but that it is not a long-term solution.
“I still think Ukraine has a lot of advantages going forward,” he said.
Putin said the “partial mobilization” would be limited to members of the military reserves, especially those who have combat experience or special skill sets.
In an interview later on September 21, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the military would seek to conscript up to 300,000 reservists in phases.
Members of Russia’s military reserves began receiving notices on September 20 to appear for two-week training sessions starting later this month.
‘A Notional Figure’
Analysts immediately cast doubt on Russia’s ability to conscript, train, feed, and equip such a large force anytime soon.
Mark Hertling, the former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said in a tweet that it would be “extremely difficult” to mobilize 300,000 people, while Kofman dismissed it as a “notional figure.”
Dara Massicot, a military analyst at the RAND Corporation, a Washington-based think tank, said the Russian Defense Ministry had let its mobilization system “fall apart” for years because it did not expect to fight a large-scale land war again.
“They will not be able to do this [mobilization] well. The system structurally cannot” handle it, she said in a tweet.
