WORLD ROUNDUPThe West Is on the Road to Energy Ruin | Putin's War Without Putin? | Shrinking Iran’s Nuclear Deal, and more

The Nuclear Threat May Be Graver Now Than in the Cuban Missile Crisis  (George F. Will, Washington Post)
Vladimir Putin’s nuclear arsenal is immensely more varied and formidable than Khrushchev’s. And Putin’s frenzy intensifies as his Ukraine blunder reveals the hollowness of the great-power strutting it was intended to validate. In contrast, Khrushchev quickly recognized that he needed what Kennedy ultimately provided — an escape from the strategic cul-de-sac into which his impulsiveness had driven him. Putin validates nostalgia for Khrushchev: The world today might be closer to a use of a nuclear weapon than it was then.

Why Russia Is the Big Winner in Italy’s Election  (Mattia Ferraresi, Foreign Policy)
Even if Giorgia Meloni says she’s sympathetic to Ukraine, the Italian right remains firmly in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s camp.

Will Putin’s War in Ukraine Continue Without Him?  (Shawn Cochran, War on the Rocks)
Will Russia’s war in Ukraine continue if Russian President Vladimir Putin leaves office? Since the invasion in February, there has been ongoing deliberation about how long Putin will remain in power, his hypothetical demise an outcome of failing health or domestic political ouster. Underpinning this deliberation is speculation, or perhaps hope, that without Putin, Russia might be more apt to abandon its war in Ukraine and seek a negotiated peace. Although supported by conventional views of war termination, any such assumption is problematic. History demonstrates that the leader who starts a costly, protracted war is rarely willing to end the war short of victory — but history also shows that leadership change does not always facilitate peace. 

The West Is on the Road to Energy Ruin (Emmet Penney, The Spectator)
The truth is that the energy crisis began to take effect late last year. A combination of post-Covid demand rebound, a wind drought in Europe and depleted fossil fuel storage on the continent all collided to put serious pressure on the world’s industrial systems. Add the longstanding over investment in unreliable renewables, nuclear plant closures across the world in the wake of the Fukushima disaster and a global drop of more than 50 per cent in oil and gas investment — from $700 billion (£635 billion) to $300 billion (£270 billion) — between 2014 and last year, and you have everything you need to kick off a global energy crunch. Russian tank treads running from the Donbas to Kyiv just made it all worse.

When the Hindu Right Came for Bollywood  (Samanth Subramanian, New Yorker)
The industry used to honor India’s secular ideals—but, since the rise of Narendra Modi, it’s been flooded with stock Hindu heroes and Muslim villains.

Tensions That Roiled English City Have Roots in India  (Megan Specia, New York Times)
Violent confrontations in Leicester have prompted soul searching in an area long heralded as a success story of diversity and integration among its large Indian diaspora.

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?  (Heather J. Williams, The Hill)
The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. The White House, even as it voiced support for widespread protests in Iran, has still been trying to reach an accommodation with Tehran on nuclear development.
As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won’t be worth the squeeze.

Protecting Ukraine’s Future Security  (William Courtney, The Hill)
President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called for security “guarantees” for Ukraine. But two other security relationships may have relevance for Ukraine. As part of its “ironclad commitment” to the security of Israel, the U.S. helps it maintain a qualitative military edge over neighboring militaries. The U.S. assists Taiwan, a “key U.S. partner” in the Indo-Pacific to maintain “sufficient self-defense capability.” Although some degree of ambiguity might exist, the U.S. is politically committed to help defend Taiwan and Israel. This could involve direct intervention.

The U.S.–India Partnership Is Too Important to Lose  (Brahma Chellaney, The Strategist)
The strategic partnership between the United States and India is pivotal to maintaining the balance of power in the vast Indo-Pacific region and counterbalancing China’s hegemonic ambitions. The US is India’s second-largest trading partner, and deepening the ties between the two countries is one of the rare bipartisan foreign policies that exists in Washington today.

China Is Exerting Greater Power Across Asia—and Beyond  (Economist)
It has become a master of political and economic leverage