Bombing to Lose | Stronger Terrorism Laws | Easing Sanctions on Venezuela, and more

In fact, the paradoxical outcome of Russia’s bombing campaigns suggests a more important insight about airpower in contemporary warfare. For decades, bombing civilian areas—as ugly and immoral as it gets in war—has been one of the most common strategies that states have used to undermine the target population’s morale and induce the target government to surrender. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and especially his recent escalation, has been no different. But as dozens of conflicts over the past century have demonstrated, using airpower against civilian targets is almost always doomed to failure. And as target countries like Ukraine obtain more advanced land-based munitions, the flaws of the airpower strategy have only become more apparent.

With Migration Surging, U.S. Considers Easing Sanctions on Venezuela  (atalie Kitroeff and Anatoly Kurmanaev, New York Times)
The Biden administration may allow the last American company producing oil in Venezuela to resume exports if the Maduro government takes steps to restore democracy.

Six Men Go on Trial Over Vienna Jihadist Shooting  (France24)
Six men accused of helping a gunman who carried out Austria’s first deadly jihadist attack go on trial in a Vienna court on Tuesday. On November 2, 2020, convicted Islamic State sympathiser Kujtim Fejzulai went on a shooting rampage in downtown Vienna, killing four and wounding 23 others before police shot him dead. In the wake of the EU member’s deadliest shooting in decades, the Austrian government and in particular its intelligence service were accused of failing to monitor the Islamist movement in the country. According to the federal prosecutors’ charge sheet seen by AFP, the six defendants — all men aged between 21 and 32 years old — were not directly involved in the deadly attack, but are suspected of actively helping Fejzulai prepare for the shooting. The six men — four Austrians, a Chechen and a Kosovar — are accused of “enabling … or otherwise promoting” the execution of the crimes “due to their shared affiliation with the radical Islamist scene and the terrorist organisation IS Islamic State,” the confidential court document said. The accused face charges ranging from participating in terrorist crimes in connection with murder to involvement or membership in a terrorist group. All except one have been held in custody on remand in the lead-up to the trial.

New Zealand Proposes Stronger Terrorism Laws  (Lucy Craymer, Bloomberg)
New Zealand’s parliament on Wednesday proposed changes to the country’s counter-terrorism laws to provide more restrictions on people thought likely to be planning an attack. The changes to the Control Orders Act and the Terrorism Suppression Act follow the introduction of the Counter-Terrorism Legislation bill in 2021 in the wake of a knife attack on several people at an Auckland supermarket by a man with known extremist views. “While no law can ever stop a motivated terrorist from undertaking an attack these changes will go a long way in preventing, disrupting and limiting their ability to do so,” Justice Minister Kiri Allen said in a statement. The changes include expanding the criteria for who can have restrictions placed on them in the community, increasing flexibility on whether someone under a control order has their identity suppressed, and making it more difficult for those categorized to have the designation of “terrorist” removed. After the mall knife attack in 2021 the government sought a review on how to improve laws to prevent a similar attack happening. The man, who was shot dead by police, was inspired by the Islamic state militant group and was being monitored constantly by security personnel after his earlier release from prison. It was the second extremist attack in the country in a little over two years after the massacre by a white supremacist at two mosques in Christchurch in March 2019 that killed 51 people and injured dozens more.

French Cement Company to Pay $780 Million Over Payoffs to ISIS  (Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Glenn Thrush, New York Times)
In the fall of 2012, an executive at the French construction conglomerate Lafarge S.A. met in Gaziantep, a sprawling city in southern Turkey, with representatives of several militias from northern Syria to hash out an agreement. As Syria had descended into civil war, Lafarge was among the few multinational companies still operating there. But employees of its cement factory just south of the Turkish border had come under attack from factions that had seized power in the region. After the Gaziantep meeting, Lafarge executives agreed to protect their operation by making monthly payments to terrorist groups including the Islamic State. The militants issued papers to the company’s drivers guaranteeing safe passage for its shipments and even offered to choke off competition. The yearslong arrangement — which came to resemble a revenue-sharing deal, even as violence encircled the plant — was at the center of a $778 million criminal plea agreement announced Tuesday by the U.S. Justice Department. Lafarge, a subsidiary of the Switzerland-based Holcim Group with extensive operations in the United States, entered a guilty plea Tuesday in federal court in Brooklyn to a count of conspiring to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization. The company also faces criminal charges in France, where it is the first corporation to be indicted on charges of complicity with crimes against humanity.

Berlusconi, Caught on Tape Gushing Over Putin, Heightens Anxiety About Italy  (Jason Horowitz, New York Times)
Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian leader and linchpin of the incoming right-wing government, blames Ukraine’s president for pushing President Vladimir V. Putin to invade.

Iranian Drones Pose a Fiendish Military Problem for Ukraine  (Economist)
Shahed-136s can be sent in large volleys from several directions, overwhelming air defenses.

U.S. Has Viewed Wreckage of Kamikaze Drones Russia Used in Ukraine  (Shane Harris, Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post)
Such information could prove crucial in helping the United States and its Ukrainian allies better identify and ultimately defeat the unmanned aircraft.

Why Putin’s Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake  (Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile, Foreign Policy)
The only thing more terrifying than Russian nuclear use is letting fear drive Western strategy.