Overstating Xi’s Power | Russian Threat to Norway's Energy | Deepening Australia-Japan Defense Pact, and more

The center-left challenger, Lula, has also gathered a handful of soccer endorsements, but fewer current stars. Many of his most prominent supporters in the sport are former players linked to Brazil’s 1980s campaign to end military dictatorship, such as former Brazil international Walter Casagrande Junior.

Fumio Kishida and Anthony Albanese Deepen Australia-Japan Defense Pact  (Bernard Lagan, The Times)
Japan and Australia will bolster military ties and intelligence sharing in a revamped security pact aimed at countering China’s growing military presence in the Asia Pacific region.

Ukraine’s Top Allies Warn Russia About ‘Dirty Bomb’ Claims  (New York Times)
The top diplomats in France, Britain and the United States, three of Ukraine’s strongest allies, issued a rare joint statement that rejected Russia’s allegation that Kyiv is preparing to use a so-called dirty bomb on its own territory, calling it a pretext Moscow has concocted for escalating the war.

Guinea Junta Agrees Return to Civilian Rule in Two Years  (France24)
Guinea’s ruling junta has agreed to restore civilian rule in two years, after facing sanctions over its original plan for a three-year transfer of power, the West African bloc ECOWAS said Friday. West African leaders had last month suspended Guinea from the bloc and imposed sanctions on a number of individuals following a military coup. “In a dynamic compromise, experts from ECOWAS and Guinea have jointly developed a consolidated chronogram (timetable) for a transition spread over 24 months,” ECOWAS said in a report following a technical mission to the country published on social media by the junta. The country’s military leader, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, said in an address broadcast on state television that the timetable would take effect from January 1, 2023. Leaders from the Economic Community of West African States must approve the timetable before it is officially implemented, with the bloc due to hold a summit before the end of the year.

Russia Deepens Its Influence in West Africa  (Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post)
Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, the previous coup leader who Traoré supplanted, himself seized power in January on grounds that the government was failing the military in its battles against insurgents…Experts now see Russia exploiting the vacuum. Since at least 2018, the Wagner Group has been enlisted to help fragile African regimes crack down on Islamist extremist insurgencies. In the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Libya and now Mali, Russian military contractors have operated on the ground alongside local forces. In some instances, they’ve been linked to reports of human rights abuses and possible war crimes.

Xi Jinping Is Weaker Than You Think  (Howard Wang, ISDP)
English-language media is already calling the 20th Party Congress a “coronation” for Xi, echoing earlier claims that Xi has become “emperor for life.” 
This overstates his power. Although Xi wields significant influence over Chinese domestic politics—certainly more than his most recent predecessors—he still needs support from the Party elite. And on that front, some cracks are showing.