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·  “The “nuclear comeback” dramatically demonstrated by Vladimir Putin’s statements and his underlying threats to use Russia’s nuclear arsenal for coercion can be interpreted in many ways. To the P3, the recent events corroborate its efforts to reassert the role of deterrence, which again date back to before the war in Ukraine.”

·  “It may seem that two parallel worlds are taking shape: the world of diplomatic forums, where disarmament is supported vigorously, and the strategic world of power relations, where all the mechanisms of restraint, arms control and even nuclear risk reduction seem to be falling apart. The growing gap between these two worlds is weakening the entire non- proliferation regime in the short term.”

The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s Strategic Deterrence (Lydia Wachs, SWP)

·  “With the concept of ‘strategic deterrence,’ Russia has developed a holistic deterrence strategy in which nuclear weapons remain an important element. Yet, to gain more flexibility below the nuclear threshold in order to manage escalation, the strategy also conceptualizes a broad range of non-military and conventional means.”

·  “In the future, the role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s strategic deterrence is likely to change. Two factors in particular could lead to a greater reliance on the nuclear component: Russia’s dwindling arsenal of non-nuclear strategic weapons and NATO’s political and military adaptation.”

·  “The question arises as to whether the vacuum left by Russia’s strategic conventional capabilities in its deterrence strategy could to a certain extent be filled by non-strategic nuclear weapons.”

·  “NATO’s steps to adapt its deterrence and defense posture are likely to further worsen the strategic situation from Moscow’s point of view. … [T]he Kremlin’s threat perception will most likely increase in light of NATO’s strategic adaptation, potentially triggering Russian force adjustments.”

·  “An elevated role for nuclear weapons in Russia’s deterrence strategy and a strengthened nuclear posture in areas bordering NATO could weaken European security and stability in different ways.”

·  “First, strengthened deployments of nuclear weapons in western Russia could trigger new arms dynamics in Europe. … a strengthening of Russian nuclear forces in the Baltic region and possibly in Belarus could generate political pressure within NATO to respond to these moves.”

·  “A greater role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s escalation management could have an impact on the stability and dynamic of potential crises between NATO and Russia.”

·  “Third, a potentially growing role of nuclear weapons for Russia’s security will pose an additional obstacle to arms control.”

Is Putin a Rational Actor? How and Why the Kremlin Might Use the Bomb  (Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., Foreign Affairs)

·  “The notion that rational decision-makers will not risk nuclear war has been a common refrain since the dawn of the nuclear age. … But human beings may not be such calculating creatures. There is considerable evidence, both from history and recent advances in cognitive science, suggesting that humans do not always act rationally.”

·  “Research reveals that all other factors being equal, people are generally less willing to take risks to acquire what they do not have than preserve something of equal value that is already theirs…But there’s a catch. Rival actors may both believe that they are vying over something that is rightfully theirs. Such is the case with Ukraine.  Putin views it as a wayward province of Russia that must be recovered.”

·  “Leaders can also dangerously overrate their position owing to “optimism bias.” Research in the cognitive sciences finds that political leaders have an inflated confidence in their ability to control events, making them more willing to take on risks.”

·  “Putin may reach a point where he believes he has nothing left to lose. Perhaps the coming months will find the war moving inexorably against him. Europe may muddle through a cold winter without caving in to Putin’s pressure. Russia’s growing economic distress could trigger internal unrest. Spring might bring renewed Ukrainian offensives that gradually chip away at Russia’s control of eastern Ukraine and perhaps even liberate Crimea. Large-scale desertions among Russian conscripts might follow.”

·  “The period of U.S. dominance that followed the Cold War lulled the world into complacency regarding nuclear weapons. The return of great power politics and revanchist great powers such as Russia has stripped these illusions away, and the West would be foolish to rule out the possibility of Putin approving nuclear strikes.”

·  “It is equally important, however, to understand that, even in the wake of a limited Russian nuclear attack, the West has plausible options for continuing to support Ukraine’s self-defense and demonstrating that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons will lead to failure, rather than success.”

Taliban Militants in Pakistan End Ceasefire with Government – Spokesman  (Reuters)
Taliban militants in Pakistan will no longer abide by a months-long ceasefire with the Pakistani government, a spokesman for the militant group said on Monday. The Afghan Taliban have been facilitating peace talks between local militants and the government since late last year. The end of the ceasefire comes ahead of a visit by a Pakistani delegation, led by state minister for foreign affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, to Kabul on Tuesday. Mohammad Khurasani, a spokesman for the militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) told Reuters in a text message that its leadership had decided to end the ceasefire with Pakistan. A TTP statement urged its fighters to resume attacks in retaliation towards a continuous military campaign against them. The Pakistani military has carried out several offensives against the militants in their strongholds in remote lawless districts bordering Afghanistan. The TTP is an umbrella group of several Sunni militant groups who have been attacking the state for years, with the aim of overthrowing the government and governing the South Asian nation of 220 million with the Taliban’s strict brand of Islamic laws.

Hezbollah Transporting Hundreds of Chemical Weapons to Lebanon – Report  (Tzvi Joffre, Jerusalem Post)
Hezbollah is storing hundreds of missiles carrying a toxic chemical payload at a warehouse in Al Qusayr, near the Lebanese-Syrian border, the Saudi Al-Hadath news reported on Sunday. The missiles include 110 Fajr missiles and over 300 Fateh missiles and are all carrying thionyl chloride, a toxic chemical, according to the report. The weapons and other equipment were transferred from the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in Masyaf to the location in Al Qusayr nearly two weeks ago.

West African Leaders Seek Solutions to Curb Terrorism from Sahel Region  (Kent Mensah, VOA News)
West African leaders met in Accra Tuesday to discuss terrorism and worsening security in the region. The Accra Initiative members, which include Benin, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Togo, are discussing preventing spillover of terrorism from the Sahel. European forces have been withdrawing from the region while Russian influence has been growing. The Accra Initiative is a cooperative and collaborative security mechanism between seven West African countries as they face increasing threats and attacks from Islamist militants across their northern borders in Burkina Faso and Niger. Addressing the maiden high-level counter terrorism conference of the Accra Initiative, Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo said it has become imperative for member states to collaborate to counter rising levels of terrorism. “West Africa continues to suffer from the effect of the scourge of terrorism and violent extremism, spreading rapidly across the region,” Akufo-Addo said. “Today, the terrorist groups emboldened by their apparent success in the region are seeking new operational grounds, a development that has triggered the southward drift of the menace from the Sahel to coastal West Africa.”

Argentina’s Junta Trial Was About More Than a Few Good Men  (Lucia Arce Ahrensdorf, Foreign Policy)
Relying on Hollywood clichés, “Argentina, 1985” offers a pat, sentimentalized view of history.