WORLD ROUNDUPWar Over Taiwan? | Why Germany Won’t Go Nuclear | The Cuban Embargo Was a Failure from the Beginning, and more

Published 6 December 2022

··War Over Taiwan?
Strengthening U.S. longstanding policy of “double deterrence”

··Only Russia’s Decisive Loss on the Battlefield Will End the Ukraine War
The invasion is about much more than one country attacking another

··Preparing for a Russian Cyber Offensive Against Ukraine This Winter
The world should be prepared for several lines of potential Russian attack in the digital domain

··Why Germany Won’t Go Nuclear
Germany is unlikely to opt for developing nuclear weapons

··The Cuban Embargo Was a Failure from the Beginning
The Cuban embargo continues because of contemporary American political dynamics

··Biden Can’t Denounce Russia’s Annexations and Ignore Israel’s
U.S. has always opposed forcible land grabs – and the Golan Heights should not be an exception

··The Khmer Rouge Tribunal is Closing its Doors: Here’s What to Know About its Final Case
The tribunal is winding down after 16 years of operation and three defendants sentenced

··Fighting and Winning in the Electromagnetic Spectrum
The electromagnetic spectrum is a critical aspect of American and Western airpower

War Over Taiwan?  Joseph S. Nye Jr., Project Syndicate)
For five decades, both China and the US benefited from the time they had bought on the question of the island’s status. To prevent what is currently a managed competition from spiraling out of control, the United States should take careful but clear steps to strengthen its longstanding policy of “double deterrence.”

Only Russia’s Decisive Loss on the Battlefield Will End the Ukraine War  (Anna Borshchevskaya, The Strategist)
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a global crisis. Putin could not let Ukraine chart its own political path or accept an independent Ukrainian identity. The invasion thus is not only about one country attacking another. It is about undermining the post–World War II liberal global order in favor of one in which great powers hold imperial spheres of influence. This war, the largest in Europe since World War II, has also resulted in a worldwide economic slowdown that is unlikely to abate. The war is far from over.
Yes, Ukrainian forces have major successes in recent months, including the counteroffensive around Kharkiv and Russia’s forced withdrawal from the city of Kherson. Russia’s military overall has performed worse in the war than Western military analysts had anticipated. Some analysts also underestimated Ukrainians and their will to fight. But Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses. According to the latest US estimates, approximately 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured since the start of Russia’s invasion.

Preparing for a Russian Cyber Offensive Against Ukraine This Winter  (Clint Watts, Microsoft)
In the wake of Russian battlefield losses to Ukraine this fall, Moscow has intensified its multi-pronged hybrid technology approach to pressure the sources of Kyiv’s military and political support, domestic and foreign. This approach has included destructive missile and cyber strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, cyberattacks on Ukrainian and now foreign-based supply chains, and cyber-enabled influence operations—intended to undermine US, EU, and NATO political support for Ukraine, and to shake the confidence and determination of Ukrainian citizens. (Cont.)