WAR IN UKRAINE“It's Not Napoleon or the Wehrmacht. It's the Ukrainians”': Military Strategist Sean McFate on What Could Stop Russia
In the eyes of American military strategist Sean McFate, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February transformed a devastatingly effective strategy — from the Kremlin’s perspective, at least — into a failed blitzkrieg and a validation of his assertion that “conventional war is dead.”
In the eyes of American military strategist Sean McFate, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February transformed a devastatingly effective strategy — from the Kremlin’s perspective, at least — into a failed blitzkrieg and a validation of his assertion that “conventional war is dead.”
Since then, he says, Moscow has abandoned the effort to “disguise war as peace” and is waging a campaign that is “more like terrorism than it is conventional war” in its targeting and tormenting of Ukrainian civilians. But as Russia bombards heating and other infrastructure to freeze out Ukrainians as winter sets in, says McFate, “it’s not going to be Napoleon, it’s not going to be the Wehrmacht. It’s the Ukrainians,” who are used to harsh winters.
A former paratrooper and author of the influential book, The New Rules Of War: How America Can Win — Against Russia, China, and Other Threats, McFate has been described by former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral Jim Stavridis as “a new Sun Tzu.”
He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a professor of strategy at the U.S. National Defense University and Georgetown University, and a consultant to the U.S. military and intelligence communities and the United Nations. His upcoming book is called The Sneaky War: Russia, China, The U.S. And The Emerging Strategic Paradigm.
RFE/RL Georgian Service correspondent Vazha Tavberidze interviewed McFate at length recently about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s missteps, the West’s path to overcoming “strategic paralysis” to defeat such autocrats, and the weight of “battlefield victories” versus just about everything else.
The following transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Vazha Tavberidze: Let me start with this question. What have we learned in the Ukraine war, and has it reinforced or refuted any of the new “rules of war” you introduced? Or maybe it added a few?
Sean McFate: When the war started in February…a lot of my colleagues joked with me, “Hey, McFate, you said conventional war is dead.” And my answer was, “Well, the war isn’t over yet.” This is when people thought the war would be over in three or four days. And sure enough, conventional war did not work for Russia.
