Top Ten Global Risks of 2023 | Ukraine and the Next Intelligence Revolution | Germany’s Coup Plot Swoop, and more

Germany Expects More Arrests After Coup Plot Swoop  (Miranda Murray, Rachel More and Max Schwarz, Reuters)
German authorities on Thursday ordered 23 people to be held for questioning as they investigate a far-right group that prosecutors say wanted to overthrow the state and install a former member of a German royal family as national leader. Investigators have said the group, many of whom were members of the movement Reichsbuerger (Citizens of the Reich), planned to install aristocrat Heinrich XIII Prinz Reuss as leader of a new state and found evidence that some members planned to storm the German parliament and seize lawmakers. Heinrich, 71, a descendant of the royal House of Reuss in the eastern state of Thuringia, was working as a real estate developer. He was arrested in the financial capital Frankfurt on Wednesday in a swoop on the group that has shocked many in one of Europe’s most stable democracies and its largest economy.

Clare O’Neil Warns Counter-Terror Laws May Need to Change to Better Handle Rightwing Extremism  (Josh Butler, Guardian)
Counter-terrorism laws could be overhauled to better target the threat of rightwing extremism and neo-Nazism, with the home affairs minister, Clare O’Neil, saying current legislation may not capture the types of “lone wolf” or less sophisticated acts that are of increasing concern to security agencies. O’Neil said the government was preparing a major civics and social cohesion program to address misinformation and threats to democracy in Australia, revealing her concern about foreign interference and radicalization of young people. In a major speech to the National Press Club, she also announced a new offensive cyber team to “punch back” at hackers and flagged a new national strategy on cybersecurity. “We are waking from a cyber slumber,” O’Neil said. “Better cybersecurity for Australia means all businesses and citizens changing how they engage with the internet … the truth is, we are unnecessarily vulnerable.” Asked about rightwing extremism in a Q&A session after her speech, O’Neil said the government was aiming to revise laws in response to “new forms of terrorism”. The Australian Security Intelligence Organization chief, Mike Burgess, last year said the agency’s investigations into ideologically motivated violent extremism was nearly half its counter-terror workload, specifically citing racist and nationalist actors.

Most Convicted Terrorists in U.K. Radicalized Online, Finds MoJ-Backed Study  (Vikram Dodd, Guardian)
Most convicted terrorists in Britain were turned to extremism by the internet, with half of those radicalized online having some problems with mental health, personality disorders, depression, or autism, the most authoritative study of its kind has found. The study for the Ministry of Justice, released on Thursday, examined official risk assessments of every convicted terrorist in prison since 2010 in England and Wales. The majority were radicalized at least in part online – a trend caused by technology and the tactics of groups such as Islamic State. While those incited to carry out or support violence online make up the majority of terrorists, their plots, according to the study, are less likely to succeed. The research challenges conventional wisdom that the growth of internet radicalization by Islamists and the extreme right allows terrorism to fester out of sight of the security services and police. The researchers from the prison and probation service, as well as Nottingham Trent and Bournemouth Universities, were given access to Extremism Risk Guidance 22+ forms. These are written for the prison and probation services and assess the commitment to terrorism, as well as the danger posed by convicted terrorists. The forms include material from counter-terrorism policing. For all convicted terrorists in jail from 2010 to 2021, 490 records were retrieved and 437 studied in detail.

Open Secrets  (Amy Zegart, Foreign Affairs)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a watershed moment for the world of intelligence. For weeks before the shelling began, Washington publicly released a relentless stream of remarkably detailed findings about everything from Russian troop movements to false-flag attacks the Kremlin would use to justify the invasion.
This disclosure strategy was new: spy agencies are accustomed to concealing intelligence, not revealing it. But it was very effective. By getting the truth out before Russian lies took hold, the United States was able to rally allies and quickly coordinate hard-hitting sanctions. Intelligence disclosures set Russian President Vladimir Putin on his back foot, wondering who and what in his government had been penetrated so deeply by U.S. agencies, and made it more difficult for other countries to hide behind Putin’s lies and side with Russia.
The disclosures were just the beginning. The war has ushered in a new era of intelligence sharing between Ukraine, the United States, and other allies and partners, which has helped counter false Russian narratives, defend digital systems from cyberattacks, and assisted Ukrainian forces in striking Russian targets on the battlefield. And it has brought to light a profound new reality: intelligence isn’t just for government spy agencies anymore.

China’s Plans for Cyberspace Are All About Domestic Control  (Thi Mai Anh Nguyen, National Interest)
Underneath China’s talk of a “shared future” and “community” in cyberspace lies a familiar desire for control over discourse.