WORLD ROUNDUP 2-8 JANUARY 2023Russia’s Rebound | How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply | The Gospel of Deglobalization | 2023’s Most Important Election Isn’t Where You Think, and more
WAR IN UKRAINE
·· Hacked Russian Files Reveal Propaganda Agreement with China
Disinformation is an old Russian government tactic, but this time Russia had help
·· Russia’s Hypersonic Missile-Armed Ship to Patrol Global Seas
Russia says the Zircon missile can evade any Western air defenses
·· Russia Is Afraid of Western Psychic Attacks
Pseudoscience and mysticism are common among the Moscow elite
·· Russia’s Rebound
How Moscow has partly recovered from its military setbacks
·· Ukraine Keeps Downing Russian Drones, but Price Tag Is High
Military experts wonder whether the successes of Ukraine’s campaign against Russian drones are sustainable
··Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World
A “deeply Western” world order is being hurried out of existence by the impact of the war
CHINA WATCH
·· How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply
The need for a shared approach to export control policy has never been more urgent
·· Wargames Can’t Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan—But Different Games Might
Wargames featuring conflict between China, the U.S., and Taiwan have taken the Washington, D.C., area by storm in the past two years
··National Security Fears Over Police Using Chinese Tech
Surveillance watchdog likens cameras and drones to “digital asbestos”
THE LONG VIEW
·· The Treaties That Make the World Safer Are Struggling
Agreement on arms control is getting harder, but it still really matters
·· Ukraine and the New Two War Construct
The prospect of America’s needing to confront a multi-front, multi-adversary set of conflicts has grown
·· Drone Advances in Ukraine Could Bring Dawn of Killer Robots
It may be only a matter of time before either Russia or Ukraine, or both, deploy killer robots
·· Corporations Can’t Ignore Geopolitics Anymore
The global division into competing blocs comes at a high price for multinationals
··10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023
After the past few years, it would be complacent to dismiss the unthinkable
··The Gospel of Deglobalization
What’s the cost of a fractured world economy?
MORE PICKS
·· To Kill a Democracy
What a mysterious murder says about modern Indonesia
·· 2023’s Most Important Election Isn’t Where You Think
Why the world’s eyes will be—or should be—on Nigeria in the coming weeks
·· Bangladesh Becomes U.S.-Russia Battleground
Dhaka’s nonaligned foreign policy is tested
·· What we Can Expect from Kim Jong-un in 2023
Kim has lowered his threshold for using nuclear weapons
·· The Quest to Revive Kent’s Coal Mine Towns Consigned to the History Books
With the use of coal rapidly declining, communities search for new uses for the old pits
·· Investigating (Mis)conduct in War is Already Difficult: Will the use of Military AI Make it Harder?
The ability to investigate (mis)conduct in war will be complicated by AI
·· ‘If the Bomb Precedes the Fall of Iran’s Regime, There’s a Potential Existential Threat to Israel’
Confusion and lack of strategic consistency about Iran’s bomb
·· Hackers Leak Email Addresses Tied to 235 Million Twitter Accounts
The leak poses threats of exposure, arrest, violence, or extortion against people who used Twitter to criticize governments or powerful individuals
··Lula Becomes Brazil’s President, with Bolsonaro in Florida
Bolsonaro, the losing incumbent, shows why he is called “Trump of the Tropics”
··Kim Jong-un Sets His Sights on Mass-Production of Nuclear Weapons
North Korea’s leader has called for “an exponential increase” in his country’s nuclear arsenal
WAR IN UKRAINE
Hacked Russian Files Reveal Propaganda Agreement with China (Mara Hvistendahl and Alexey Kovalev, Intercept)
In 2021, government officials and media executives from Russia and China discussed the exchange of news and social content.
Russia’s Hypersonic Missile-Armed Ship to Patrol Global Seas (Associated Press / VOA News)
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday sent a frigate armed with the country’s latest Zircon hypersonic missile on a trans-ocean cruise in a show of force as tensions with the West escalate over the war in Ukraine.
Russia Is Afraid of Western Psychic Attacks (Lauren Wolfe, Foreign Policy)
There are plenty of reasons these days to wonder if Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies are off their rockers. But a recently leaked memo from the Kremlin reveals that those in charge of the Russian government are farther down the rabbit hole than most of us realized.
Russia’s Rebound (Barry R. Posen, Foreign Affairs)
All the dumb Russians are dead.” So said Ukrainian officials in July 2022 as they sought to explain why the Russian army had abandoned the overambitious strategy and amateurish tactics that defined its conduct in the early weeks of the war. It was probably too early to make this quip.
Ukraine Keeps Downing Russian Drones, but Price Tag Is High (Matthew Mpoke Bigg, New York Times)
When costly missiles take out cheap drones, the real winner over time may be the country that spends less.
Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World (Roger Cohen, New York Times)
The invasion of Ukraine, compounding the effects of the pandemic, has contributed to the ascent of a giant that defies easy alignment. It could be the decisive force in a changing global system.
CHINA WATCH
How to Win Friends and Choke China’s Chip Supply (Emily Kilcrease, War on the Rocks)
On Oct. 7, the Biden administration took a risky gamble, introducing a sweeping set of new export controls that will reach deep into China’s advanced semiconductor production, supercomputing, and artificial intelligence ecosystems.
Wargames Can’t Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan—But Different Games Might (Timothy R. Heath, Lawfare)
Wargames that simulate combat between the United States and China near Taiwan can provide useful insight about potential military challenges.
National Security Fears Over Police Using Chinese Tech (Fiona Hamilton, The Times)
More than a third of police forces are using equipment from companies that pose a national security risk, according
