Quick Takes // By Ben FrankelBrazil: "The Content of the Three Powers Is Preserved"

As Yogi Berra said: “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”

People who watched an unruly mob — supporters of the candidate who had lost the 31 October election in Brazil — break into government buildings in Brasilia on Sunday, would be forgiven for thinking that they have seen this movie before.

How did we get here?

On 9 September 2022, nearly two months before the 31 October second round of the Brazilian election, the Economist, in an editorial titled “He Will Not Go Quietly,” predicted that if the incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, were to lose the election, he would likely not do what democracy-supporting leaders in democracies do: accept the result, call on his supporters to accept it, congratulate the winner, praise the country’s democratic processes, and help in a peaceful transition of power.

But then, it is not for nothing that Bolsonaro has earned the moniker “Trump of the Tropics.” The Economist noted that “Donald Trump once called Mr. Bolsonaro his ‘number-one ally.’ ‘Star pupil’ would be more apt.”

On 31 October, Lula, the left-of-center candidate, defeated the right-populist Bolsonaro in a close election.

Bolsonaro was quiet for more than a week, weighing his options. He checked with the military and the Agência Brasileira de Inteligência (or ABIN, Brazil’s intelligence agency) to see whether they would support him if he refused to accept the election result and stay in power despite the verdict of the voters. To their credit, both the military and ABIN told Bolsonaro that they would support the winner of the election.

To prepare a pretext for his likely refusal to accept defeat if he lost the election, Bolsonaro and his supporters were, throughout the fall, spreading lies and conspiracy theories about Brazil’s supposedly “rigged” electoral system, and about imaginary flaws in Brazil’s voting machines.

While Bolsonaro was ensconced in his office weighing his options, his legal team filed a complaint with the Brazilian federal election commission about the functioning of these machines in areas which supported Lula, asking the commission to invalidate the vote in those areas.

The election commission summarily dismissed these complaints for lack of evidence and rejected the request to invalidate the election.

Some of Bolsonaro’s supporters conducted a “truck rebellion:” about 300 truckers used their 18-wheelers to block major highways around Brazil’s major cities for a few days.

After the military and the intelligence agencies told Bolsonaro that they would not support his effort to stay in power, and after the election administration rejected his request to annul the election, Bolsonaro made a short speech from his office, in which he said he had instructed his government departments and agencies to begin the process of the transition of power. We should note that most cabinet ministers and heads of agencies announced that they were not waiting for Bolsonaro’s instructions, and advised Lula’s transition teams that the transition could start right away, while Bolsonaro was still maintaining his silence.

At the urging of his political advisers, Bolsonaro also offered one perfunctory sentence about how violence was not acceptable to settle political disputes. He never mentioned Lula.

Bolsonaro did not attend the 1 January 2023 swearing-in ceremony of Lula as his successor. He was in Florida, where he would stay for a few months in order to avoid corruption investigations which have already ensnared his family members, and to which, now that he is no longer in office, he would be exposed.

Law enforcement officers and military police have so far arrested more than 400 extremists who rioted in Brasilia on Sunday.

The rioters caused considerable damage to offices and public areas in the Palácio do Planalto, where the president has his office. The Planalto is one of three buildings which house the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the government. These buildings are part of the iconic “Plaza of the Three Powers” (Praça dos Três Poderes), which the architect Oscar Niemeyer designed at the center of Brasilia, the new capital city of Brazil, which was inaugurated in 1963.

This morning, Monday, Lula and his ministers insisted on conducting business as usual in their vandalized offices.

“Não vão paralisar as instituições, presidente vai fazer reunião aqui no Planalto,” said Minister of Communication Paulo Pimenta. “O espaço físico foi violado, mas conteúdo dos Três Poderes está preservado.” (“The institutions will not be paralyzed, the president will hold a meeting here in the Planalto … The physical space has been violated, but the content of the Three Powers is preserved”).

Ben Frankel is the editor of the Homeland Security News Wire.