WAR IN UKRAINEMakiivka and Bakhmut: The Impact of Russian Casualties
When we step back from the daily news the underlying trends of this war favor Ukraine. It is learning to cope with the repeated Russian attacks on its critical infrastructure, and once spring comes the impact will decline, while it has been getting bolder in its attacks on facilities on Russian territory. Here lies the biggest danger for Putin - more retreats rather than more casualties - and a developing aura of futility. The question of what it takes to get Russia to abandon its war of conquest remains unanswered but that does not mean that no answer will ever be found.
‘It is better to be killed fighting for the fatherland than to drink vodka to death’
—- Vladimir Putin
‘You have a morbid aversion to dying. You probably resent the fact that you’re at war and might get your head blown off any second.’
‘I more than resent it, sir. I’m absolutely incensed.’
—- Joseph Heller, Catch-22
On New Year’s Eve Russians could listen to a message from Vladimir Putin in which he praised them for fighting to protect ‘our people in our historical territories in the new regions of the Russian Federation’ and reminded them that, ‘Russia’s future is what matters the most. Defending our Motherland is the sacred duty we owe to our ancestors and descendants.’ If they needed more reminders that their armed forces were engaged in a war of conquest they could watch a Moscow New Year party on state TV where the toast was to the country’s enlargement and in which Ukrainians were mocked.
Death at Makiivka
And then just as 2023 began, a Vocational College in Makiivka, close to the city of Donetsk and some 12.5 km from the front line, was hit by Ukrainian artillery. The building housed hundreds of recently conscripted Russian soldiers, largely from the southwest district of Saratov. Vehicles and equipment were parked beside the building. The soldiers shared the building with ammunition, which was the main reason that so much was obliterated in the blast. Soon this was the talk of the Telegram channels favored by Russian military bloggers. The Ministry of Defense, rarely forthcoming on its losses in war, had no choice but to acknowledge the disaster. At first it confirmed 69 deaths. This number later crept up to 89. The unofficial number is closer to 300 killed.
The response from the Russian high command was to blame the victims. According to Lieutenant General Sergei Sevryukov, ‘the main reason for the incident was the activation and mass use – contrary to a prohibition – of mobile phones by personnel in the enemy’s range.’ This enabled ‘the enemy to track and determine the coordinates of the soldiers’ locations for a missile strike.’
