CHINA WATCH8 Lessons for Taiwan from Russia’s War in Ukraine
While the fighting in Ukraine is on land, and thus very different from the maritime battlefield that would surround Taiwan, there are still many things Taiwan can learn from Ukraine’s defensive operations.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power in China have raised fears of a comparable military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Moscow has annexed, on paper, parts of eastern Ukraine that it sees as its traditional territory and regards NATO as a hostile force. China, meanwhile, sees Taiwan as a local government and the Taiwan Strait as an internal sea. Such claims of sovereignty and maritime rights challenge international norms embraced by the West and its allies, as well as some of their interests, thus creating contestation beyond the borders of the regions in question.
While the fighting in Ukraine is on land, and thus very different from the maritime battlefield that would surround Taiwan, there are still many things my island nation can learn from Ukraine’s defensive operations.One similarity in particular is that Taiwan, like Ukraine, is a relatively weak power facing the threat of a much larger one—and that asymmetry lies at the heart of many of the lessons outlined below, including that a nation’s security cannot rely solely on promises of peace and that continuity of government operations is vital.
In some key respects, Taiwan finds itself in a more advantageous position than Ukraine. It is geographically separated from its adversary by the strait and its GDP in 2021 was nearly four times Ukraine’s by one measure,1 giving Taiwan the financial leeway to bolster its defenses in advance.
Before considering lessons for Taiwan, it is important to note that China has also learned from the Russian-Ukrainian war, most notably by improving its psychological warfare capabilities, which have increasingly targeted Taiwan, and enlarging its nuclear arsenal (a process that began before the current war). Nuclear weapons afford Beijing a “political denial” capability, in addition to its conventional military anti-access/area-denial capabilities, to deter other countries from assisting Taiwan. The fact that Moscow’s nuclear arsenal has kept the West from sending troops into Ukraine has likely reaffirmed China’s drive to accelerate the build-up of its nuclear arsenal and rocket forces.
