Suspected Israeli Drone Strike in Iran Part of New 'Containment Strategy'
During a trip to Israel on January 30, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that he held talks with Israel’s new right-wing government about “deepening cooperation to confront and counter Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region and beyond.”
Tehran did not immediately blame any country for the strike. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the “cowardly drone attack” was aimed at creating “insecurity” inside the Islamic republic.
Iran summoned Ukraine’s charge d’affaires in Tehran after a senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Mykhaylo Podolyak, tweeted about an “explosive night in Iran,” adding that Ukraine “did warn you.”
Nournews, affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, earlier said Podolyak’s tweet implied Kyiv’s involvement in the attack and warned of “heavy consequences.”
The strike came amid Iran’s worsening ties with Western nations over its brutal crackdown on ongoing antiestablishment protests and its deepening military cooperation with Russia.
Iran has admitted to sending drones to Russia but said they were sent before Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow has denied that it has used Iranian drones in Ukraine, even as they have been shot down in that country.
‘Possible Activation of Plan B’
Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Security Strategy, said Israel’s suspected recent small-scale attacks against Tehran have “limited impact on Iran’s military capabilities as the country is prepared and has a level of technical and strategic resilience.”
But “the timing of the strikes is significant, as the hopes for the [nuclear deal] are dying and tensions are rising between Europe and Iran,” Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, told RFE/RL. “The U.S. and Israel are also conducting their largest military drill at the moment, indicating possible activation of Plan B.”
Grinberg said it was up to Iran to “either respond and escalate tensions or negotiate with the U.S. and Europe.”
Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs said Iran does not have the capability to retaliate to the same extent.
“Israel probably knows this, and that’s why it continues such provocations,” he said.
But Azizi added that due to the immense pressure the Islamic republic is facing domestically from anti-regime protests, as well as from the outside, “it may calculate that not responding is more damaging to its survival than doing something.”
“We’re not there yet, but the risk is there, and it’s getting more real,” Azizi warned.
In the past, Iran has retaliated by targeting Israeli-owned ships with drones and conducting cyberattacks against Israeli infrastructure. Last year, Iran claimed responsibly for a missile strike in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil, which Tehran claimed targeted an Israeli “strategic center.”
Golnaz Esfandiari is a senior correspondent for RFE/RL focusing on Iran.This article is reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL).
