Germany's Balancing Act on Nuclear Weapons

Some politicians in the Green Party, traditionally one of Germany’s more fierce critics of nuclear weapons, have also been among the country’s most vocal supporters of Ukraine. NATO officials, meanwhile, take every opportunity to show that Russia’s efforts to divide the alliance have failed.

“Clearly, we are at something of an inflection point,” John Erath, Senior Policy Director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told DW. “One of the means Russia has chosen to accomplish its end is to make threats of the use of nuclear weapons.”

Nuclear Brinkmanship, Past and Present
That end — taking control of Ukraine, and breaking US and NATO support — has so far not come to pass. However, using nuclear weapons as a “diplomatic tool,” Erath said, has been somewhat effective at moderating that support. The US has been careful to avoid escalation that could draw it into direct conflict with Russia, and German officials have often expressed their concern about crossing a line that would make Germany an official party to the war.

“The real danger lies in if this conflict concludes with Russia perceived as succeeding, and this tool being perceived as being effective. Because that opens the floodgates,” Erath said. Other nuclear-armed states, such as North Korea, could make bolder threats with their own arsenals.

Such nuclear diplomacy has precedent. In the 1980s, new deployments of Soviet nuclear forces prompted NATO to respond in kind. Widespread protests, especially in then-West Germany, pressured the government to oppose the stationing of more US missiles on its soil.

By NATO’s own account, it was a “difficult period for West Germany as well as NATO.” The alliance, however, held. A “double-track” compromise was reached, which saw more deployments, but also negotiations to reach a deal with the Soviet Union on arms control.

“Differences in nuclear risk tolerance among NATO allies can be a pressure point for Russia to exploit,” Jonas Schneider, an international security associate at the Berlin-based security think tank SWP, told DW. “Overall, Germany has staked out a more cautious positioning when it comes to nuclear risk.”

The Other 10%
Arms control in terms of treaties is at its nadir, now that Russia has suspended — but not withdrawn from — New START, the last major agreement limiting Russian and US nuclear systems. In the near term, at least, security analysts like Schneider are relatively sanguine. 

“In all, I don’t see an increase in the nuclear risk as a result of what’s happened to New START,” he said.

That is partly because treaties are just one element of arms control. Transparency, dialogue, and data collection through both public and clandestine means are others. Nuclear weapons are expensive and conspicuous, making changes in numbers or deployment fairly easy to spot.

The treaties have also only covered Russian and US forces. While they control about 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, including first-strike capability, the absence of China from these treaties is a bigger worry.

There are several small and midsize nuclear-armed states, but Erath said it is China “where things are changing in the nuclear world.” Moreover, the US lacks the awareness and lines of communication of the kind built up with Russia over decades.

“If there were to be a crisis over Taiwan, it’s a little bit harder to get that direct line to Beijing,” he said.

Most countries do not possess nuclear weapons, and 92 of them have signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Without any of the world’s nuclear powers on board, however, the agreement is largely symbolic.

Germany, which supports the abolition movement but is beholden to US nuclear doctrine, finds itself trying to do two things at once. Germany attended a treaty meeting in 2022 in Vienna as an observer — a reflection of anti-nuclear aspirations competing with real-world nuclear commitments.

William Noah Glucroft is a Berlin-based journalist. This article was edited by Ben Knight, and it is published courtesy of Deutsche Welle (DW).