CRITICAL MINERALSThe Energy Transition Will Need More Rare Earth Elements. Can We Secure Them Sustainably?
Decarbonizing the world’s power generation will require huge numbers of wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and storage batteries — all of which are made with rare earth elements and critical metals. Supplying these vast quantities of minerals in a sustainable manner will be a significant challenge, but scientists are exploring a variety of ways to provide materials for the energy transition with less harm to people and the planet.
To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C or close to it, all countries must decarbonize—cut fossil fuel use, transition to zero-carbon renewable energy sources, and electrify as many sectors as possible. It will require huge numbers of wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and storage batteries — all of which are made with rare earth elements and critical metals.
The elements critical to the energy transition include the 17 rare earth elements, the 15 lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. While many rare earth metals are actually common, they are called “rare” because they are seldom found in sufficient amounts to be extracted easily or economically.
Elements such as silicon, cobalt, lithium, and manganese are not rare earth elements, but are critical minerals that are also essential for the energy transition.
Supplying these vast quantities of minerals in a sustainable manner will be a significant challenge, but scientists are exploring a variety of ways to provide materials for the energy transition with less harm to people and the planet.
Demand Is Growing
The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow 400-600 percent over the next few decades, and the need for minerals such as lithium and graphite used in EV batteries could increase as much as 4,000 percent. Most wind turbines use neodymium–iron–boron magnets, which contain the rare earth elements neodymium and praseodymium to strengthen them, and dysprosium and terbium to make them resistant to demagnetization. Global demand for neodymium is expected to grow 48 percent by 2050, exceeding the projected supply by 250 percent by 2030. The need for praseodymium could exceed supply by 175 percent. Terbium demand is also expected to exceed supply. And to meet the anticipated demand by 2035 for graphite, lithium, nickel, and cobalt, one analysis projected that 384 new mines would be needed.
China once supplied 97 percent of the world’s rare earth elements. Government support, cheap labor, lax environmental regulations, and low prices enabled it to monopolize rare earth metal production. Today China produces 60-70 percent of the world’s rare earth elements and is also securing mining rights in Africa. The U.S. produces a little over 14 percent and Australia produces six percent of rare earth elements.
