Study Links Hard-Right Social Media with Incidents of Civil Unrest

They describe social media platforms that have these two features as “hard-right” rather than “extreme right”, “far-right”, or “right-wing” because most of the content posted on them aligns with mainstream conservative views. Instead, “hard-right” is meant to emphasize that the majority of platforms’ content is socially and politically conservative but also obstinately opposed to compromise with the political left and center.

The analysis drew on multiple data sources. They acquired records of civil unrest events related to hard-right groups that occurred across the United States during the period studied compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, a non-governmental initiative that collects data on political violence and protest in 100 countries, and the Crowd Counting Consortium, a scholarly project that documents contentious events across the United States. They also accessed a database of all activity on the hard-right social media platform Parler in 2020, which included reliable information about users’ location. They created a database of tens of thousands of videos Parler users created and shared on the platform during 2020 and early 2021.

The researchers then mapped the data by U.S. Census Bureau core-based statistical areas — which are geographic units containing at least 10,000 people and an urban center — as well as counties. After finding an association between hard-right social media activity and subsequent hard-right civil unrest, the researchers examined potential causes of that relationship. This analysis focused on the content of people’s posts on Parler.

Their analysis produced no evidence that people were frequently using the platform to plan incidents of unrest. For example, only two of the 50 most frequently used words — “joined” and “meeting” — appear related to coordinating activity. Neither account for more than 0.5% of all words on used on Parler, the study found.

The researchers also measured how closely statements by hard-right “elites” made on Parler reflected ideas expressed by non-elites in the prior month. They found evidence that when non-elite users see their ideas expressed in commentary by prominent users, it alters their perceptions of social norms, aligning these perceptions with their existing views and corresponding behavior.

“There is a lot of support in the sociology literature for the idea that people often understand social norms from cues they receive from elite or admired people in their groups, and we found evidence for this among people using hard-right social media,” Karell said.

“When people see their existing beliefs and values reflected in elite commentary, previous research tells us this would have a validating effect that makes them perceive their views and ensuing behavior as more socially acceptable than they previously thought. As a result, people might subsequently take actions they would have previously avoided.”