Iran’s ThreatThe Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Moving Toward Extreme Danger
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action. As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger, and over the last six months, the threat posed by Iran has increased. As of May 2023, the Institute assigns Iran a total threat score of 140 out of 180, up from 130 in October 2022, and assessed as High Danger.
A national security threat is typically posed by a combination of hostile intentions and capabilities. The threat from Iran’s nuclear program is no exception. The Iran Threat Geiger Counter from the Institute for Science and International Security measures on a regular basis Iran’s hostile intentions toward the United States and U.S. allies, and its capability to turn these hostile intentions into action through the potential deployment and use of a nuclear weapon.
As with the radiation levels measured by a Geiger counter, any level above zero represents a degree of danger. Over the last six months, the threat posed by Iran has increased. As of May 2023, we assign Iran a total threat score of 140 out of 180, up from 130 in October 2022, and assessed as High Danger.
Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Methodology and Results
The Institute assigns the following threat level using a zero to 180 scale on the Iran Threat Geiger Counter:
0-30: Least Danger 31-60: Low Danger 61-90: Moderate Danger 91-120: Considerable Danger 121-150: High Danger 151-180: Extreme Danger
The Iran Threat Geiger Counter measures the threat level posed by Iran on a scale from zero to 180, divided into six categories that each carry a maximum score of 30:
Hostile Actions (30 Points Max) Hostile Rhetoric (30 Points Max) Lack of Transparency (30 Points Max) Nuclear Breakout (30 Points Max) Sensitive Nuclear Capabilities (30 Points Max) Beyond Breakout (30 Points Max)
The scoring system for each category is the following:
0-5: Least Danger 6-10: Low Danger 11-15: Moderate Danger 16-20: Considerable Danger 21-25: High Danger 26-30: Extreme Danger
Current Threat Environment
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Hostile actions
Score — 25
Direction of change — ⇧3
Danger level – High danger
Hostile rhetoric
Score — 28
Direction of change— — 0
Danger level – Extreme danger
Lack of transparency
Score — 19
Direction of change — ⇧2
Danger level – Considerable danger
Nuclear breakout
Score — 30
Direction of change — — Max
Danger level — Extreme danger
Sensitive nuclear capabilities
Score: 20
Direction of change — ⇧3
Danger level – Extreme danger
Beyond breakout
Score — 18
Direction of change — ⇧2
Danger level – Considerable danger
Total score: 140
Danger level: High danger
The current status of the threat Iran poses for each criterion, including point changes
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