WORLD ROUNDUPAfrica Is World's Terrorism Hot Spot | U.S. Influence in the Pacific | Unwritten Deal Is What Iran and America Need, and more

An Unwritten Deal Is Exactly What Iran and America Need  (Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy)
Rumors are abounding that after 10 months of almost no diplomatic activity, the United States and Iran are close to reaching an informal agreement that will prevent a further escalation between the two. What is on the table is not the renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement—which remains in a comatose state—but rather an unwritten understanding that neither side will pull the plug on the respirator.
Diplomacy between the United States and Iran has steadily degraded over the years. From the intense and, at times, weekslong direct negotiations that produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—a more than 100-page written agreement embodied in a unanimously approved U.N. Security Council resolution—to the current mostly indirect negotiations over an unwritten, informal understanding.
Yet, it is a victory for both countries because, without this informal agreement, the two sides would steadily be moving toward a disastrous confrontation.

U.S. Influence in the Pacific Requires Congressional Action  (Andrew Harding, National Interest)
The Pacific Islands are strategically important to U.S. ambitions to balance China. Although President Biden’s decision to cancel his trip to Papua New Guinea was unfortunate, the State Department managed to ink two important agreements elsewhere in the region.
On May 22 and 23, State announced the signing of Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreements with the Republic of Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia. The pacts will govern U.S. relations with both countries for twenty years. Ambassador Joseph Yun, the lead U.S. negotiator, hopes to finalize negotiations with the Republic of the Marshall Islands.
Micronesia, Palau, and the Marshall Islands were vital elements in the U.S. strategy to defeat Imperial Japan during World War II. Collectively known as the Freely Associated States (FAS), they remain critical to U.S. defense today. While the COFAs establish uniquely close relations between the parties in several respects, the key provisions are the exclusive military rights granted in return for economic assistance.
The COFAs grant Washington “full authority and responsibility for security and defense matters in or relating to” the FAS. The exclusive right to operate armed forces and bases throughout the FAS gives the United States an irreplaceable “strategic denial” right, granting it the ability to prevent foreign militaries from entering the FAS zone or using it as a base of operations.
These denial rights have grown in importance due to China’s military buildup and expanding footprint in the Western Pacific. 

German Intel. Chief Calls PKK Biggest Foreign Terror Group in Country  (Daily Savbah)
The top German intelligence chief said the PKK is the biggest foreign terrorist group in the country, with around 14,500 supporters.
Turkey has complained that despite the group’s illegal status, European Union countries have long turned a blind eye to its activities on their soil, including media outlets, pro-terror demonstrations, and violence threatening Turkish diplomatic offices and Turkish nationals abroad.

How the Far-Right Has Grown into the Greatest Extremist Threat to Germany’s Democracy  (Siobhan Robbins and Dorothee Thiesing, Sky News)
In December 2022, authorities foiled a coup by the so-called Reichsburger who were planning to overthrow the government. A report has now found the number of right-wing extremists in Germany had risen to 38,800 in 2022 from 33,900 the previous year.

Counterterrorism Experts Say Africa Is World’s Terrorism Hot Spot With Half of 2022’s Victims  (AP / VOA News)
Counterterrorism experts said Tuesday that Africa is now the world’s terrorism hot spot, with half of the victims killed last year in sub-Saharan Africa, though al-Qaida and Islamic State affiliates remain widespread, persistent and active elsewhere around the globe.
Interpol, the international criminal police agency, also reported during a panel discussion at the U.N. that terrorism linked to extreme right-wing ideology increased an estimated 50-fold over the past decade, particularly in Europe, North America and parts of the Asia-Pacific.
The experts see other trends: Deteriorating global security is making the terrorism threat “more complex and decentralized.” Extremists are increasingly using sophisticated technology, and drones and artificial intelligence have opened new ways to plan and carry out attacks.

Safer Skies Initiative Integral to Preventing Shooting Down of Civilian Aircraft  (ICAO)
Canada’s Safer Skies initiative is crucial to avoiding repeats of the shooting down of civilian aircraft, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano advised delegates at a recent forum on the topic, but States must ramp up the political momentum around implementation and exchange of expertise. 
The Third Safer Skies Forum was convened by the Governments of Canada and the Netherlands in support of progress “towards preventative conflict zone risk management practices,” and took place in Rotterdam and the Hague on 5 and 6 June.