Many Once Democratic Countries Continue to Backslide, Becoming Less Free – but Their Leaders Continue to Enjoy Popular Support

Ekrem İmamoğlu, the former mayor of Istanbul and a member of the CHP opposition party, was considered a formidable challenger to Erdoğan before the 2023 election. But in December 2022, a Turkish court sentenced İmamoğlu to nearly three years in jail for calling Turkey’s supreme election council “fools,” and barred him from politics.

Erdoğan’s control of the judiciary system helped remove the threat of İmamoğlu’s popularity. Around 2021, Erdoğan himself was experiencing a dip in popularity.

Erdoğan has taken other steps to consolidate his power. This includes detaining military officials who question his authority, and arresting journalists, activists and academics who criticize him.

Despite these actions, people reelected Erdoğan – and his approval rating continues to be relatively high, even in the face of a weak economy and high inflation.

Public spending is one key way Erdoğan has maintained people’s support.

Leading up to the May 2023 elections, Erdoğan went on a spending spree to help consolidate his support. He repeatedly increased the minimum wage, most recently by 34%. He dropped the retirement age requirement, giving 2 million people the opportunity to stop working and receive pensions.

Erdoğan, who has long championed Islamic causes and groups in a secular country, has also rallied conservative constituents by positioning himself as a leader who will fight for religious rights.

Orbán’s Hold on Hungary
Similar trends are underway in Hungary. Orbán has served consecutive terms as prime minister since 2010. He won his fourth election in 2022.

Since 2010, Orbán has taken measures to strengthen his power. In 2013, he used his party’s majority in parliament to make constitutional amendments that limit courts’ power. One change involved eliminating all decisions courts made before 2012, discarding a body of law from before Orbán’s time.

More recently in 2018, Orbán tried creating a parallel court system that would have let a justice minister oversee election-related cases in a separate court system.

However, pressure from the European Union – of which Hungary is a member – stopped these planned reforms in 2019.

Orbán has also tried to consolidate his power by weakening independent media. This effort includes not renewing news organizations’ broadcast rights and government purchase of media outlets. This, in turn, makes it difficult for opposition candidates to get their message out to voters. In some cases, print news outlets have not allowed opposition candidates to place political advertisements, for example.

Despite these developments, Orbán’s approval ratings remain high, hovering around 57% following the 2022 parliamentary election.

Here again, a political leader used high levels of public spending, as well as a nationalist message, to his advantage.

Orbán provided generous benefits to families, children and armed forces before the 2022 elections. Some of these measures he announced included tax rebates to families with children, additional pay to members of armed forces and canceling personal income tax for workers under the age of 25.

Orbán used nationalism – expressed through anti-immigrant rhetoric – as a strategy to garner support during elections, as well. He has discussed the drawbacks of “race mixing” and migration in order to drum up support among Hungarians who are concerned about the influx of newcomers.

Authoritarianism a Broader Trend
Erdoğan’s and Orbán’s attempts to consolidate power are only two examples of a broader, rising trend of authoritarianism across the world.

A total of 60 countries – including Nicaragua, Tunisia and Myanmar – experienced declines in freedom in 2022, while only 25 improved, according to Freedom House. The U.S. received a score of 83, or “free,” according to this list, which considers political rights and civil liberties and scores countries based on these factors.

Using money to give incentives to voters and invoking nationalism are two ways leaders like Erdoğan and Orbán maintain support. But other factors, like rising inequality, may also play a role in why people turn to strongmen leaders for answers.

Nisha Bellinger is Associate Professor of Political Science and Global Studies, Boise State University. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation.