THE RUSSIA CONNECTIONWho Killed Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Numerous competing theories are likely to surface about the demise of the Russian paramilitary commander—all of which help explain Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
From the moment Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his June mutiny against the Russian general staff (and indirectly against President Vladimir Putin himself), there has been intense interest in Putin’s response. Two months later, with Prigozhin’s reported death in a plane crash north of Moscow, it seems there is an answer: the boss of the Kremlin has taken his revenge.
Or has he? As more information about the event emerges and Russian authorities conduct an investigation, competing explanations are sure to surface: that the crash was an accident; that Prigozhin was targeted by one or more of his many enemies; that Putin’s advisors organized the killing but were not instructed by him to do so; and finally, of course, that Putin ordered the hit. None of these views will rest on real proof, but all of them shed light on how the system Putin oversees is changing.
1. An Accident? The probe into Prigozhin’s crash is extremely likely to find it an accident of some kind. However, politically charged investigations in Russia (such as this one) lack transparency in the best of circumstances. An official report will likely rely on various pieces of information to deflect suspicion from the Kremlin, such as the fact that the plane’s Brazilian manufacturer said it had ceased servicing the aircraft because of sanctions on Russia; that the Wagner leadership team had just returned from an exhausting trip to Africa to shore up ties with its clients there; that air defense units around Moscow were on high alert because of Ukrainian drone attacks. Yet even Russians who believe this version of events will also be reminded of how much Putin has destabilized the country.
2. Targeted by His Enemies? For years, Putin’s favor helped shield Prigozhin as he aggressively acquired wealth and power. With that protection removed by the mutiny, rivals may have felt more freedom to settle scores. These include competitors from the business world (Prigozhin grew rich from contracts with the government that others surely envied), and prominent figures at the highest level of the Russian government itself, including senior generals of the ministry of defense.
