U.S.-led Deterrence in South China Sea May Push China to Become More Confrontational: Analysts
in recent years suggest China could be pushed to adopt a more confrontational approach. As Beijing struggles to address unprecedented domestic political and economic problems, Koh thinks China may adopt what he describes as “a policy of externalization,” where authorities try to distract the public from domestic challenges.
“China could undertake more confrontational and more aggressive actions with respect to flashpoints like the South China Sea or even Taiwan,” he said. “I don’t think that’s what the U.S. and its allies want to achieve.”
Commenting on the water cannon incident, the commander of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet Vice Adm. Karl Thomas said on Aug. 27 that China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea must be challenged and checked.
“There’s no better example of aggressive behavior than the activity on 5 August on the shoal,” Thomas said. “You have to challenge people I would say operating in a grey zone.”
In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said U.S. warships have been flexing muscles and sowing discord in the disputed water, which qualifies as “aggressive behavior.”
“China Coast Guard takes necessary measures to safeguard China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” he said during the daily press briefing on Aug. 28. “This is beyond reproach. The US has no right to interfere.”
China claims almost all of the South China Sea, an assertion rejected internationally, and Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, and the Philippines have various claims to certain areas.
South Korea May Look to Become More Involved in the South China Sea
Apart from efforts to establish deterrence through joint military drills with partners in the South China Sea, some analysts say South Korea, another key U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific region, may be setting its sights on being more involved in Southeast Asia.
“For the most part, Seoul has been quite quiet when it comes to the South China Sea, but in recent times, this seems to have changed,” said Singapore-based defense expert Koh. “Following the water cannon incident, the Korean embassy in Manila issued a statement criticizing China. It’s quite rare for the Koreans to be so open about it.”
While Seoul’s level of commitment to the South China Sea remains unclear, Koh thinks some signs suggest South Korea may want to be more visible in Southeast Asia, with the South China Sea in mind. “There is a more robust set of alliance relationships that underpin the U.S. approach in the South China Sea against China,” he told VOA.
For the most part, analysts think Beijing, Washington, and its allies will continue to keep their activities in the South China Sea “under the threshold of an armed conflict.” However, they say Beijing will continue to press its claims over the South China Sea.
“If they don’t have success against Manila, they will probably try Vietnam, and if Vietnam pushes back, they might try Malaysia,” said Graham from Australian Strategic Policy Institute. “There are many opportunities for Beijing to press its claims. That’s why the most important challenge is to get a cohesive response not just from the U.S. allies but also from Southeast Asian countries.”
William Yang is freelance correspondent covering the Greater China region for @voanews. This article is published courtesy of the Voice of America (VOA).
