The Road to Critical Mineral Security | Chinese Spies Are Targeting Access, Not Race | Rift With Canada Puts Spotlight on India’s Security Services, and more

Even as the literature on a potential U.S.-Chinese conflict grows, topics such as proactive conflict termination and alliance dynamics remain understudied. Understanding the conditions, short of capitulation, in which a conflict might be brought to a conclusion will prove critical to managing escalation. Likewise, modeling the complexities of multinational military operations dispersed over thousands of kilometers is as important as understanding various operating concepts. Incorporating these strategically critical concepts into holistic assessments of the military balance is necessary to appreciate how they affect, and are affected by, more straightforward elements of military operations and strategy. 

Will the Russia-Ukraine War lead to World War III  (Jacob Nagel Boaz Golany, National Interest)
Some journalists have predicted that the war’s unpopularity, owing to the high casualty count, coupled with the heavy toll of the sanctions, could turn the Russian people against Putin. This, too, is wildly off-base. Russian history is replete with leaders who imposed enormous losses on the population without paying the price of regime collapse. Major strategic miscalculations by Joseph Stalin and his top brass led to humiliating military defeats to the invading Nazi army throughout Operation Barbarossa in 1941. The Soviets lost vast territory, and their casualties numbered in the millions even before the notoriously bloody Battle of Stalingrad commenced. As Russians still boast today, the hardship steeled the resolve of the Russian army and people, leading to a historic victory over the German invaders.
Of course, none of this means the world is marching toward a total war. But key scenarios still could precipitate a turn for the worst. For example, a collapse of the Russian frontlines (e.g., Ukrainian troops breaking through Zaporizhia, Kherson, and surrounding areas and establishing a significant bridgehead on the Crimea peninsula) could prompt Russia to deploy nuclear weapons (tactical or strategic) to restore the balance. Deputy Chairman of Russia’s National Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly warned that Russia won’t hesitate to use such weapons if necessary. Similarly, a sudden Ukrainian collapse—leading to the fall of Kiev—may cause the United States and its NATO allies to introduce new, more destructive weapons or even deploy “boots on the ground” to restore the balance. In either scenario, the road to WWIII is not only a scenario for science fiction.
More broadly, a miscalculation by either party could have unintended consequences. For example, a Russian anti-aircraft battery downing a NATO jet fighter crossing from Polish airspace into Ukraine due to a navigational error could push NATO to invoke Article 5. Similarly, if Russian long-range missiles accidentally strike a target in one of Ukraine’s NATO neighbors, causing significant fatalities, Article 5 invocation, again, is not out of the question.

Taiwan Is Using Generative AI to Fight Chinese Disinfo  (Patrick Tucker, Defense One)
Many U.S. observers are waiting in dread for China to attempt a military takeover of Taiwan sometime before 2027, but beneath the threshold of armed conflict, China is already attacking vital Taiwanese information streams, both physically and virtually, while the island develops new tools and techniques to resist.
In April, a Chinese fishing vessel, followed by a cargo ship, dragged their anchors east of Taiwan’s Matsu islands, severing the two communications cables that link the islands with Taiwan itself, an act of either sabotage or clumsiness that has occurred at least 27 times in just the last five years. Taiwan has said that it suspects the severings were intentional. And of course attacks on commercial and public telecommunications channels are now a common occurrence between adversarial nations, as when Russia attacked the U.S.-based satellite communications company Viasat an hour before Moscow launched its renewed war on Ukraine.

US Denies ‘Wedge’ in Canada Ties After Refusing to Condemn Terrorist’s Killing  (India Today)
Sullivan’s comments came after the Washington Post reported earlier this week that Canada wanted to get its closest allies, including the US, to come together and condemn India. However, Ottawa’s attempts were rebuffed, the report said. The shooting of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey in June this year was privately raised by several senior officials of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US, a Western official was quoted as saying by the Washington Post. However, the matter was not raised publicly ahead of the G20 Summit in Delhi that was held on September 9 and 10. Nijjar, one of India’s most-wanted terrorists who carried a cash reward of Rs 10 lakh on his head, was shot dead by two unidentified gunmen outside a gurdwara in Surrey in the western Canadian province of British Columbia on June 18. He was the chief of the Khalistan Tiger Force (KTF).

Rift With Canada Puts Spotlight on India’s Security Services  (Sushant Singh, Foreign Policy)
When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week accused the Indian government of involvement in the fatal shooting of a Canadian Sikh activist, it was perhaps the first time a liberal, Western democracy had made such a claim about New Delhi. Trudeau was backed by the Canadian opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, who called the alleged actions an “outrageous affront” to Canadian sovereignty. India has rejected the accusations, but on Tuesday, Trudeau doubled down: “We are not looking to provoke or escalate. We are simply laying out the facts as we understand them,” he said.
Earlier this month, senior Canadian intelligence officials visited India before the G-20 summit in New Delhi to share the evidence they had gathered about the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June. Trudeau raised the issue with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a meeting on the sidelines of the summit. Afterward, New Delhi issued a brusque statement noting its concerns about “continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada.” That likely gave Trudeau a sense about how India intended to treat the allegations once they were made public.
India and Canada’s shared values and people-to-people ties should make them natural partners, but that has not been the case under Modi and Trudeau. Bilateral relations have been frayed for some time, in part because India believes that Canada has been sympathetic toward the Sikh separatist movement, while Canada has said India was interfering in its domestic politics. Trudeau’s allegations this week caused the two countries to reach a breaking point. Anticipating the geopolitical effects, Trudeau briefed Canada’s closest allies about the case before his announcement, including the leaders of the United States and the United Kingdom. The two countries issued a statement of concern about the incident.
In New Delhi, concerns about the return of Sikh separatism have long fed insecurities about India’s sovereignty, and those anxieties have grown under Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s Hindu nationalist regime. Modi’s top security czar is a former intelligence chief, Ajit Doval, who led a successful campaign against violent Sikh separatists in the 1980s. Canadian Sikh support for the 2020 farmers’ protests against Modi’s government no doubt stoked Doval’s own fears. Many of the demonstrators were Sikhs. India’s security establishment has allegedly violated international law in a few high-profile cases abroad. None have taken place in a country like Canada, a treaty ally of the United States and the United Kingdom.

How Germany’s Extreme Right Seized on the Martial Arts Scene  (Deccan Herald)
The festivals — which are often declared political events, making them harder to ban and ensuring that any profit will be tax-exempt — typically feature a right-wing extremist speaker or seminar, according to Hans-Jakob Schindler, the Berlin-based senior director of the Counter Extremism Project. And while MMA tournaments in Europe typically feature fighters from different racial groups, these events allow only white fighters to take part. “They’re trying to broaden the capture area,” Schindler said. “You get people to buy the T-shirt, you can get them to come to one of the festivals. And you slowly begin speaking them to them about how the political system is bad. And so you draw them in a bit more subtly than you did in the past.

Chinese Spies Are Targeting Access, Not Race  (Horatio Smith, Foreign Policy)
On Aug. 3, 2023, the U.S. Justice Department arrested U.S. Navy sailors Jinchao Wei and Wenheng Zhao for illegally transmitting restricted military information to China. Many commentators offered colorful responses to the Wei and Zhao arrests.For example, in the Washington Examiner, John Schindler questioned why the Pentagon continues to “grant security clearances to Chinese Americans without special scrutiny.”
Over a decade ago, during the Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao eras, these might have been valid points. Today, though, China’s recruitment techniques are very different—and in some ways, more dangerous.
Implying that all Chinese spies and influence agents are ethnically Chinese is analytically incorrect and counterproductive to U.S. national security efforts. Setting aside the discussion of whether or not such comments are racist or anti-American, a prioritized focus on ethnic Chinese spies and influence agents may draw focus away from and impede comprehensive counterintelligence efforts to detect the next Mallory, Claiborne, Hansen, Moinian, Majcher, or Singham. Moreover, increased scrutiny of Chinese Americans during the security clearance process may, in the CIA’s words, “turn away unnecessarily personnel who can make a major contribution to the nation’s intelligence efforts,” including counterintelligence analysis and operations, using their language and cultural expertise.