WILDFIRESSimultaneous large wildfires will increase in Western U.S.
Simultaneous outbreaks of large wildfires will become more frequent in the Western United States this century as the climate warms, putting major strains on efforts to fight fires. This trend threatens to stretch firefighting resources.
Simultaneous outbreaks of large wildfires will become more frequent in the Western United States this century as the climate warms, putting major strains on efforts to fight fires,new research shows.
The new study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), focused on wildfires of 1,000 acres or larger. It found that wildfire seasons in which several such blazes burn concurrently will become more common, with the most severe seasons becoming at least twice as frequent by the end of this century.
The research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and by the U.S. Department of Energy.
“Higher temperatures and drier conditions will greatly increase the risk of simultaneous wildfires throughout the West,” said NCAR scientist Seth McGinnis, the lead author of the study. “The worst seasons for simultaneous fires are the ones that are going to increase the most in the future.”
While other research has focused on the risk of more frequent and larger fires in a changing climate, the study tackles the problem from a different angle: what is the impact of climate change on fires that burn at the same time?
This is a critical question because simultaneous wildfires generally require more firefighting resources than a single large blaze. Multiple fires have more perimeter for firefighters to contain than an individual fire that burns the same area, and firefighting agencies in different regions cannot share their resources if they are facing a number of major fires burning at the same time.
“Simultaneous fires are a bigger challenge to manage than a number of fires burning one after another,” McGinnis said. “When fires are burning simultaneously, they put more strain on resources.”
The study appeared in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. It was co-authored by scientists from the University of Washington and the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education.
More Simultaneous Blazes Across All Western Regions
The number of large wildfires and the size of burned areas has increased in recent decades in the Western United States, with previous research showing that climate change is at least partly responsible. Since it is more expensive to fight multiple fires than concentrating resources on a single large blaze, McGinnis and his co-authors wanted to determine the future risk of simultaneous fires, addressing the issue in a way that would be most useful for firefighting operations.
