A Digital Iron Curtain? | Is China's Military the Goliath It's Portrayed to Be? | The Virtues of Restraint, and more

Artem Sheikin, a senator in the Russian Duma responsible for digital technology, announced in October that beginning in March 2024, Russia’s Communications Supervision Authority will block all VPN services from being downloaded in app stores if they provide access to material that the Russian state has banned. While the proposal is not feasible for various reasons, it indicates the level of concern that Russian authorities have regarding the potential for encrypted communications to allow citizens to access uncensored information.

The Virtues of Restraint  (Shivshankar Menon, Foreign Affairs)
After Hamas’s horrific terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, it seemed inevitable that Israel would retaliate in devastating fashion. The first, natural reaction to such an attack is revulsion, accompanied by a desire for revenge and exemplary punishment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acted on that desire, vowing to “destroy” Hamas, bombarding the Gaza Strip, and launching a ground invasion of the territory—even though it remains unclear how, if at all, Israel can eliminate Hamas militarily or ideologically.
But choosing to meet violence with violence is a choice. In fact, not all victims of terrorism choose retaliation. On November 26, 2008, ten Pakistani terrorists stealthily landed by sea in Mumbai. The carnage they unleashed over the next two days in attacks on hotels, cafes, a major train station, and a community center killed at least 174 people and injured over 300. Indian authorities swiftly realized that the terrorists came from Pakistan and enjoyed the backing of the country’s security establishment. I served as foreign secretary in the Indian government at the time, and my first reaction was to press for strong retaliatory action against our neighbor for such a brazen attack.
But after deliberations in which it weighed the likely outcomes and broader effects of various courses of action, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government ultimately opted not to undertake an overt military strike on terrorist camps in Pakistan. Instead, New Delhi responded to the terrorist atrocity in Mumbai through diplomatic and covert channels. In public, the country chose restraint, not revenge. That decision brought India international support, prevented a potentially catastrophic war, minimized civilian casualties, and arguably prevented more terrorism. At least so far, India has not experienced another Pakistani-backed attack with mass casualties on Indian soil.

Is China’s Military the Goliath It’s Portrayed to Be?  (Steven Kosiak, Responsible Statecraft)
In recent years China’s military has become not only stronger and more capable, but also in a variety of areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, more assertive. In this light, it is only prudent that the United States remain engaged in the region and, along with its allies, maintains robust military capabilities.
At the same time, decisions about where, when and how to respond to the challenge posed by China, and particularly its military capabilities, should rest on a clear and dispassionate understanding of that challenge built on thorough and rigorous analysis. Unfortunately, along too many critical dimensions, such analysis by the U.S. national security community is currently lacking.
These shortcomings include the unsettling degree to which assessments of the Chinese military challenge have devoted enormous attention to various Taiwan contingencies and, by comparison, remarkably little attention to the Chinese military’s capacity — or lack thereof — to directly conquer or coerce any of the major powers in the region, such as Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia.
Worse yet, current assessments have increasingly equated defending Taiwan, and other relatively small nearby economies, with preventing Chinese regional hegemony. In fact, and as I detailed in a recent brief for the Quincy Institute, surprisingly little analytical effort has gone into exploring, let alone convincingly making, this case. Conversely, there is substantial evidence suggesting the enormous difficulties the Chinese military would face in attempting to defeat or coerce other major powers in the region.

Lithium Mining in Africa Reveals Dark Side of Green Energy  (Kate Hairsine, DW)
Called the “white gold” of the renewable energy revolution, lithium is a key component of the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that power everything from cellphones to electric cars. Such batteries are also vital for storing energy produced by clean energy like solar or wind if the world is to make the break from fossil fuels.
Globally, the lithium supply is currently dominated by Australia, Chile and China, who together produced 90% of the light metal in 2022. But with about 5% of the world’s lithium ore reserves, Africa still holds enormous potential, most of which is untapped. Currently only Zimbabwe and Namibia export lithium ore, while projects in nations such as Congo, Mali, Ghana, Nigeria, Rwanda and Ethiopia are under exploration or development.
With demand for the critical mineral expected to boom — it could grow fortyfold by 2040, according to projections from the International Energy Agency — major economies and international companies are racing to secure access to lithium on the continent.
And many African nations are embracing the lithium rush.