CLIMATE & SECURITYPlanning for an Uncertain Future: What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command

The Middle East and Central Asia are projected to become hotter and drier, with reduced access to fresh water, resulting from climate change. The leadership of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is concerned that these changes could lead to greater conflict in its area of responsibility (AOR). 

CENTCOM leaders asked the RAND Corporation to help them better understand the role that a changing climate plays in regional stability, the effects of climate change on human systems, and how to mitigate potential threats that could arise from climate change. For example, within the CENTCOM AOR, extreme temperatures and water scarcity during the summer months contributed to significant civil unrest in Basra, Iraq, from 2018 to 2022. Simmering disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could escalate fresh water competition between Egypt and Ethiopia into conflict.

A new reportfrom the RAND Corporationdiscusses these impacts from climate hazards, stressing that they are anticipated to continue to spill over into the security environment, changing the character of intrastate conflict in the region and creating demand for stabilization operations, noncombatant evacuation operations, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). CENTCOM’s interest in addressing climate stress in the AOR goes beyond preventing and responding to conflict. Adapting to climate change also presents CENTCOM with an opportunity to build partner resilience to climate hazards, with the ancillary benefit of strengthening bonds within the CENTCOM coalition.

Key Findings

·  Nearly the entire U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) faces the compounding effects of accelerating high temperatures, drought, and long-term dryness.

·  Causal pathways from climate events to armed conflict are multistep processes in which climate hazards compound governance and socioeconomic grievances.

·  According to modeling by RAND Corporation researchers, the CENTCOM AOR will experience substantial conflict in the coming half century. However, that modeling might be underestimating the impact of climate variables on conflict.

·  China and Russia have climate-related tools to leverage in relationships with regional countries.

·  Because the causal pathways from climate hazards to conflict revolve around political and economic concerns, CENTCOM will likely play a supporting role to interagency partners.

·  Supporting partner resilience to climate hazards will strengthen partnerships within the CENTCOM coalition and mitigate conflict risk.

Key Recommendations for U.S. Central Command

Elevate nontraditional security cooperation.
Nontraditional security cooperation activities merit greater attention because they address emerging threats, draw on U.S. strength in technological adaptation, and can be leveraged to deepen cooperation within the CENTCOM coalition.

Operations, activities, and investments (OAIs) related to climate preparedness and resilience also align with CENTCOM’s focus on partnerships and innovation.

Incorporate climate into strategy, planning, and intelligence products.
CENTCOM should incorporate climate analysis into the development of its theater strategy, defense planning products (e.g., operational plans), and intelligence products.

This includes CENTCOM updating contingency plans for HADR and noncombatant evacuation operations.

Expand the State Partnership Program.
CENTCOM should request to expand the State Partnership Program within the AOR, particularly with National Guard units that are experienced in responding to climate-related disasters.

Build climate literacy among CENTCOM staff.
CENTCOM would benefit from greater climate literacy at all levels of headquarters staff and forward-deployed personnel, such as security cooperation officers and defense attachés based in the region.