WORLD ROUNDUPAmerican Greatness and Decline | Is North Korea Plotting a War? | Everyone Wants a Chip Factory, and more
· American Greatness and Decline
If Donald Trump wins back the White House in November, this year could mark a turning point for American power. Finally, the fear of decline that has preoccupied Americans since the colonial era would be justified.
· Germany’s Dangerous Alternatives
Germany’s party system is changing ahead of this spring’s European Parliament elections, as newer, radical parties are openly challenging the postwar consensus
· Settler Sanctions and the Liberal International Order
Israeli extremist violence, and the settlements themselves, threaten US strategic interests and the broader liberal international order
· Three Ways to Monitor, Mitigate & Respond to Supply Chain Challenges
The world’s current volatile threat environment is a significant threat to the health and protection of our vital supply chains
· Does North Korea Want a War? Study the Ukraine Conflict for Clues
The classic indicators of invasion preparation have yet to be seen
· Is North Korea Plotting a War?
North Korea is not plotting war, and yet, in the interactive bargaining situation in which risking war offers political benefits, there is a risk of unintended escalation
· Everyone Wants a Chip Factory
How the world is future-proofing (and China-proofing) its semiconductor supply chains
American Greatness and Decline (Joseph S. Nye Jr., Project Syndicate)
With most Americans believing that the United States is in decline, Donald Trump claims he can “Make America Great Again.” But Trump’s premise is simply wrong, and it is his proposed remedies that pose the biggest threat to America.
All told, the US holds a strong hand in the twenty-first-century great-power competition. But if Americans succumb to hysteria about China’s rise, or to complacency about its “peak,” the US could play its cards poorly. Discarding high-value cards – including strong alliances and influence in international institutions – would be a serious mistake. Far from making America great again, it could greatly weaken it.
Americans have more to fear from the rise of populist nationalism at home than they do from the rise of China. Populist policies, such as refusing to support Ukraine or withdrawing from NATO, would do great damage to US soft power. If Trump wins the presidency in November, this year could be a turning point for American power. Finally, the sense of decline might be justified.
Even if its external power remains dominant, a country can lose its internal virtue and attractiveness to others. The Roman empire lasted long after it lost its republican form of government. As Benjamin Franklin remarked about the form of American government created by the founders: “A republic if you can keep it.” To the extent that American democracy is becoming more polarized and fragile, it is that development that could cause American decline.
Germany’s Dangerous Alternatives (Daniela Schwarzer, Project Syndicate / The Strategist)
For years, German foreign policy was rarely a domain of fierce debate over fundamentally different alternatives. Since reunification (1989-91), Europe’s largest country and strongest economy has defined its foreign policy in terms of European and transatlantic relations, implying ever-deeper anchoring within the European Union and NATO. In practice, this meant outsourcing German security to the transatlantic alliance, disinvesting militarily, and concentrating on boosting the country’s economic power.
Postwar Germany’s highest priority has been to forge compromises with fellow Europeans, both deepening and enlarging the EU, which German leaders have seen as the single most important contribution the country can make to peace and prosperity on the continent. (Cont.)
